Bold Prediction on UFC/Strikeforce Future....

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: May 14, 2011 at 08:48 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

The part of this that is not so bold is that Strikeforce will be absorbed by the UFC be the middle of 2012.
I believe the UFC will either mutually part ways with Showtime or will buy them out of the current deal.
This will allow the earlier merge, and will also pave the way for the next step.
The UFC will sign an all inclusive contract with NBC.
Versus which will have been rebranded NBC Sports will gain access to a monthly event (12 per year).
The UFC will continue to run 14-15 PPV's per year (15 events)
UFC will agree to either 4 or 6 events per year on NBC. (6 events)
The Ultimate Fighter will appear on USA Network and can possibly be pared in the original spot opposite of WWE wrestling with showtimes at either 11pm eastern or 8pm eastern before RAW. The other possibility is doing both of these similar to what they are doing with Tough Enough Currently.
The other option would be to put this on another night. Either way USA would get TUF (2 seasons per year) and also would get 2 TUF Finales and if needed could show prelims live. (2 events)
Thats 35 Events per year.
Lets assume 12 fights per card and 2 fighters in each fight.
That means we have 840 fighters participaiting in fights each year.
The average fighter fights 3 times per year, meaning that leaves us with a Roster of 280 Fighters. This is a very realistic number to have between 240 and 280 fighters under contract at all times. Currently I think there are close to 350 fighters under contract, so its also realistic that this could be pared down to the 280 level by the merge.
Some of you are going to ask about Spike TV, well Spike TV has moved UFC pograms to worse time slots, and the ratings have gone down as they try to negociate a new deal. Or Spike realizes that the UFC is gone and is pissed about it.
Either way, this is going to pave the way for NBC to promote over all their channels and the UFC to get onto Network TV. By adding all the strikeforce fighters along with WEC fighters, its not unrealistic to add the number of events I am talking about.
Think of this...Currently we get 2 TUF Finales, 15 PPV, 4 Versus, 3 UFN.
Thats a total of 24 events. We are talking about adding 11 events, and probably adding the 125 pound division while eliminating STrikeforce.
This is my bold prediction, and we will start to see the first signs of this as UFC comes to the TV deal with NBC in the next 6 months.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: fishfryer
Date: May 14, 2011 at 08:54 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

It seems like alot of PPVs, but I'm all about the free stuff. The problem with so many PPVs is that there isn't enough time to describe and hype as the best card ever. I think no more tha 8 PPVs a year is likely with the increase in free stuff.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: May 14, 2011 at 08:56 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

fishfryer said:
It seems like alot of PPVs, but I'm all about the free stuff. The problem with so many PPVs is that there isn't enough time to describe and hype as the best card ever. I think no more tha 8 PPVs a year is likely.
Click to expand...
You realize PPV is their single biggest money maker and you think they will have less then previous years?
They had 16 in 2010 or at least 16 numbered shows so 14 or 15 PPV's.
I dont see them cutting that number.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: fishfryer
Date: May 14, 2011 at 08:59 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

It seems like if they a network deal, they will make money from that, but I don't see their being demand for PPVs if there are UFNs every other week. Right now they are scrambling for fights, how many times can Fitch or Penn fight GSP? Edgar/Maynard 9 is in the works. I just think they may go to a model with more free TV advertising and less PPV. But I could be wrong, after all, the NFL has 0 PPVs.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: May 14, 2011 at 09:01 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

fishfryer said:
It seems like if they a network deal, they will make money from that, but I don't see their being demand for PPVs if there are UFNs every other week. Right now they are scrambling for fights, how many times can Fitch or Penn fight GSP? Edgar/Maynard 9 is in the works. I just think they may go to a model with more free TV advertising and less PPV. But I could be wrong, after all, the NFL has 0 PPVs.
Click to expand...
PPV will stay a major part of UFC's programming.
They make to much money to give it up.
The reality is with Strikefroce and 125, your going to have such an infusion of fighters and good matchups, you can fill more cards.
8 champions means probably 18-20 title defenses a year mininum.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Jak
Date: May 14, 2011 at 09:04 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

Do you think the only reason TUF has gone so far down in ratings, only has to do with the business side of it and not that's basically become a barely watchable show?
Let's hope that is there is 35 or even 24 events a year, that the PPV's step it up. If they have both the SF and UFC roster to work with, the PPV events 1 through 12 of the year should all be good and borderline epic...
Do you think the base of PPV's will go up or down, if the average is roughly 500k give or take, will the influx of network TV drive that down, or boost that up?
Who do you think will be the first cross over fight?
Will there be anything special about the last few fights of the SFHWGPX? what i mean is by the time we get to the finals, will it be on NBC or PPV or Showtime?
Does Brock Lesnar leaving hinder anything, the die hard will say it doesn't matter, but the UFC always had the GSP/Lesnar card to pull out whenever they needed a boost. Bringing Overeem over and pimping him could change opinion, but the UFC's go to stars, Couture, Liddell, Hughes, Penn, Franklin are all on the down swings and not a lot of fighters are really stepping up and being more than just MMA. Jon Jones is certainly a start. Who else can they market that can sell 750k ppvs?

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: May 14, 2011 at 09:11 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

Jak said:
Do you think the only reason TUF has gone so far down in ratings, only has to do with the business side of it and not that's basically become a barely watchable show?
Click to expand...
Timeslot no doubt has a ton to do with it, its an hour earlier, and in a timeslot thats more competitive. That matters.
Let's hope that is there is 35 or even 24 events a year, that the PPV's step it up. If they have both the SF and UFC roster to work with, the PPV events 1 through 12 of the year should all be good and borderline epic...
Do you think the base of PPV's will go up or down, if the average is roughly 500k give or take, will the influx of network TV drive that down, or boost that up?
Click to expand...
I think it can make big events even bigger on PPV cause of advertising, but I also think that it could lead to some less buyers if a card doesnt deliver. I think thats a good preassure for the UFC to have on themselves. Also, we are getting more good fighters, this leads to more good matchups and more fights that are viewed as PPV and NEtwork TV caliber. I think you have to consider that the Versus events will likely be good, but with 1 or 2 solid fights. This would also allow the UFC to get to more area's on a consistant basis.
Who do you think will be the first cross over fight?
Will there be anything special about the last few fights of the SFHWGPX? what i mean is by the time we get to the finals, will it be on NBC or PPV or Showtime?
Click to expand...
I believe the GP finals will be on PPV, and I believe that having a guy like BJ Penn Comain against Gibert Melendez would make a lot of sense. But there are so many things that could happen between now and then to affect everything. I think the first big cross over fight is going to be all about timing. I think that if CAin/JDS win in october, that there is really a void of fights for the winner. Who the hell do they fight next? Problem is, they will need one more fight before the GP champ is available. Therefore I expect Lesnar to face the winner of Mir/Nelson. This would provide a major fight, and another major win for whoever comes out of that. That will lead to them facing the GP champion.
Does Brock Lesnar leaving hinder anything, the die hard will say it doesn't matter, but the UFC always had the GSP/Lesnar card to pull out whenever they needed a boost. Bringing Overeem over and pimping him could change opinion, but the UFC's go to stars, Couture, Liddell, Hughes, Penn, Franklin are all on the down swings and not a lot of fighters are really stepping up and being more than just MMA. Jon Jones is certainly a start. Who else can they market that can sell 750k ppvs?
Click to expand...
I think Brock will come back much quicker then people think, they dont realize this is a flare up, and likely not nearly as long term as before, it was a timing issue mainly. If Lesnar is unable to come back then who knows where we go next.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: jdontay77
Date: May 14, 2011 at 10:03 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

Nice idea. I read an article somewhere that listed all the networks that had shown interest and it seemed to suggest something like this would happen as well.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: A_G
Date: May 14, 2011 at 10:05 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

Couldn't Showtime drag this contract out until 2014 if they really felt like it?

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: May 14, 2011 at 10:09 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

Perma_Bandit said:
Couldn't Showtime drag this contract out until 2014 if they really felt like it?
Click to expand...
Yes, but I believe every major contract that came up would see the fighter leave. Also I would imagine they would get a payoff.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: chrisprevails
Date: May 14, 2011 at 10:12 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

buffaloblue is the new Miss Cleo.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: freestyle400
Date: May 15, 2011 at 02:08 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

I feel like the UFC already has a surplus/overload of fighters, match-ups, and fights in the waiting. At the moment those cards are packed pretty stacked pretty fast. And an eventual SF merger would require sliming down some of the divisions BIG TIME and increasing the number of cards these fighters can get themselves on. With how busy it could become you might not see a fighter for 7+ monthes because the cards have just become overbooked.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: dock59
Date: May 15, 2011 at 03:04 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

I'm down with three events a month.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: May 15, 2011 at 09:23 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

freestyle400 said:
I feel like the UFC already has a surplus/overload of fighters, match-ups, and fights in the waiting. At the moment those cards are packed pretty stacked pretty fast. And an eventual SF merger would require sliming down some of the divisions BIG TIME and increasing the number of cards these fighters can get themselves on. With how busy it could become you might not see a fighter for 7+ monthes because the cards have just become overbooked.
Click to expand...
Thats what you missed, I actually gave a scenario where you could have 280 fighters on the roster based on the number of events.
Thats a nice big roster, which if you have 8 divisions is 35 fighters per division based on extra events.
Of course HW would have less likely.
IS 35 a division not enought?
And I figured that off 3 fights a year meaning fights every 4 months.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: phoenix-mma
Date: May 15, 2011 at 09:54 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

Very interesting Blue. I think all of your predictions are plausible. I do, however, think that the UFC & Showtime will somehow come to an agreement to show UFC cards. Bob Arum and Top Rank boxing have had a long term partnership with HBO sports. Recently their relationship soured and Arum signed a deal with Showtime for the Pacquiao/Mosley fight. HBO has been the boxing network king for the better part of 2 decades. If Showtime becomes the permanent home of Pacman AND the UFC then it will be all but over for HBO. Also, Showtime has the "Fight Camp 360" series which would mesh well with the UFC's "Countdown" series.
But who knows, with Dana White involved we could end up watching the UFC on Oprahs Network.
My bold predictions: We will see an all female season of TUF with Cyborg and Carano as the coaches. Despite what Dana has said in the past about womens mma he will acknowledge the slumping ratings on TUF & look to shake things up.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: ModestMMA
Date: May 15, 2011 at 09:57 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

I love how when this guy says it everyone agrees but when I say it (and I've been saying it for a while) everyone scoffs at it! :x
Anyway, agree on all points, blue. We will see the ascent of the UFC to an organization on par with MLB, the NHL, NBA and maybe even the NFL in our lifetimes.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: PsychoIcon
Date: May 15, 2011 at 10:11 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

Alot of people are giving this idea s---, but I have to generally think, this is pretty close do do what a ceo of a company would want to do.
1.Yes they wouldnt sell as many ppvs, but listen. WWE doesnt have a problem selling ppvs in there big events.
2. If it was on a large network, the network would freely promote it themselves(nbc).
3. Better Air Times
4. Tuff would probably get better production, and they are working on making it better by changing certain things anyway.
5. Super-Fights, Ufc will eventually keep buying other fighters, and organizations.
6. They can make events on the fly, if ratings are low to high and they can do as they see fit for current ratings.
7. This machine ran fine without brock; it can keep doing so.
8. Just mean most of the ppvs will be supercards ^^ worth buying.
9. Maybe more value in entrances and production(like fighter intros and entertainment,who knows...).
10. By that time it will be legal just about everywhere because it is on network tv.
This would finally be a mainstream product and we might see more strict rules, drug-testings-fighter-cuts-fines-behavioral remands, its going to become much more serious with someone like nbc involved.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: May 15, 2011 at 10:39 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

So one idea I will change is TUF on USA to Versus aka NBCSports.
Apparently Vinnie Mac is still pissed he let TUF on after WWE on spike and wouldnt stand for it on USA.
While you say, well he doesnt control them, but he does control 4 million or so viewers a week on Raw.
I would expect this would be an everything move for NBCSports/NBC Network which works pretty much the same as stated above.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: chriscrowing
Date: May 15, 2011 at 10:40 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

I would say that something like 18 PPVs (or at least numbered events) plus 6 TV specials is about right in terms of fight cards.
Throw in ONE season on TUF per year (it's too diluted as it is, and they really need to startv concentrating on divisions which aren't already stacked and using it to create interest in the lesser known divisions - Bantamweight and Featherweight need to be the next two seasons) and say four-six mini-series of Primetime to build up showcase main events.
Given the need/desire of thew UFC to grow internationally, I think you need at least six international numbered events per year - I guess these can be PPV if it's workable to have them at a US friendly time, if not, have them shown on tape delay on whatever network wants them in the States. That gives us a total of 24 events, which is one roughly every other week, two a month. That's PLENTY.
It would give a calender a bit like this...
January - Numbered North American PPV -
Numbered European PPV/Spike Special (France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Spain, Holland)
February - Numbered North American PPV -
UFC on Versus
March - Numbered North American PPV -
Numbered Asian PPV/Spike Special (Japan, China, India, Korea)
April - Numbered North American PPV -
UFC UFN
May - Numbered North American PPV -
Numbered Australian PPV/Spike Special
June - Numbered North American PPV -
UFC on Versus
July - Numbered North American PPV -
Numbered UK PPV/Spike Special
August - Numbered North American PPV -
UFC UFN
September - Numbered North American PPV -
NUmbered South/Latin American PPV/Spike Special (Brazil, Argentina, Mexico)
October - Numbered North American PPV -
UFC on Versus
November - Numbered North American PPV -
Numbered Expansion/Investment PPV / Spike Special (Abu Dhabi - somewhere more about the ambition/prestige of the nation than the market value / size of the MMA fanbase)
December - Numbered North American PPV -
UFC UFN

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: May 15, 2011 at 10:44 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/bold-prediction-on-ufc-strikeforce-future.38776/

24 events is not enough as it limits your fighter roster and allows room for another Strikeforce like promotion to ris.
24 events, 12 fights 2 fighters per fight.
Thats 576 total fighters needed / 3 fights per year =
192 fighters. Currently Zuffa has 350 to 375 under contract. Good luck throwing half of them out on their asses.
Last year the UFC alone ran 24 events. IF they add strikeforce guys, that must expand.