Couture/Vera

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: September 13, 2009 at 07:12 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

The fight's been announced for UFC 105 for those who haven't heard.
What do you guys think? I'm thinking Couture. He's been looking a little shaky lately, but Vera hasn't exactly been a world beater at LHW either. Couture should also have a size advantage. My first impulse is that Couture's good at -150 or better. Thoughts?

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: September 13, 2009 at 07:43 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

I'm thinking the opposite. I think Vera has the grappling ability to not let Couture dominate him....the old Couture at least, the Couture that showed up at UFC 102 couldn't control Nog against the cage or land any shots...no offense to Couture, he's 46 now and at this point in time I don't think Couture has any magical upset wins left. Couture's stand up looked pathetic against Nog, and Vera has a Nog-type chin. I don't know where the line will travel, I have a hunch Vera will be -115 or possibly a slightly better favorite, but I will very likely be putting some money on Vera.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: September 13, 2009 at 07:56 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

GuidaClayAllDay said:
I'm thinking the opposite. I think Vera has the grappling ability to not let Couture dominate him....the old Couture at least, the Couture that showed up at UFC 102 couldn't control Nog against the cage or land any shots...no offense to Couture, he's 46 now and at this point in time I don't think Couture has any magical upset wins left. Couture's stand up looked pathetic against Nog, and Vera has a Nog-type chin. I don't know where the line will travel, I have a hunch Vera will be -115 or possibly a slightly better favorite, but I will very likely be putting some money on Vera.
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Hmm. . . Indeed.
Yeah, I'm kind of at a loss on this one. Not sure exactly which direction to go. I agree that Couture didn't look great against Nog . . . but on the other hand he looked pretty good against Lesnar all things considered.
I dunno. I'll have to think about this fight.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: monteaz
Date: September 13, 2009 at 08:40 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

I love this fight, I think Couture takes it by controlling Vera in every aspect of the fight. I like Couture up to -185- I think the line is going to be well set with Couture opening at -205 or so and representing little value.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: zY
Date: September 14, 2009 at 12:22 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

If Vera comes in as the dog, which he will probably end up even if the bookies don't put him there, I'll jump all over him. I think this fight is closer to 50/50 if not the edge to Vera. I see it as a less exaggerated version of A.Silva/Hendo, but still a similar style matchup. Vera totally outclasses Randy standing up, and he has a very underrated ground game, especially defensive. Randy MAY be able to take Brandon down but it won't be with ease. And once he gets it there, I don't think he'll be able to do much. However, if he can do it for 2 rounds out of 3 and Brandon is unable to get up (which he very well may) he could very easily take a decision.
Which reminds me that 3 round fights are gay.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: September 14, 2009 at 12:29 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

zY said:
If Vera comes in as the dog, which he will probably end up even if the bookies don't put him there, I'll jump all over him. I think this fight is closer to 50/50 if not the edge to Vera. I see it as a less exaggerated version of A.Silva/Hendo, but still a similar style matchup. Vera totally outclasses Randy standing up, and he has a very underrated ground game, especially defensive. Randy MAY be able to take Brandon down but it won't be with ease. And once he gets it there, I don't think he'll be able to do much. However, if he can do it for 2 rounds out of 3 and Brandon is unable to get up (which he very well may) he could very easily take a decision.
Which reminds me that 3 round fights are ***.
Click to expand...
The more I think about the more I think that the right bet may simply be a bet on whoever is the underdog. I don't think I'd go heavy on either guy, though. Like you say, this seems like one that could go either way.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Sheriff
Date: September 14, 2009 at 05:35 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

Indeed a pick-em fight but I'm favoring Vera. I think his TD defense and reach advantage + great standup should keep Randy timid. Vera understands distance very well but at the same time I wouldn't drop too much on him

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: ZedzDead
Date: September 14, 2009 at 11:14 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

No offense to couture, one of my favorite fighters, but I feel like at this point in his career a jab could ko him, just seems to be getting dropped alot lately
At the same time vera seems to have lost his killer instinct since his back to back losses
I won't be betting on couture, I would probably only be interested in a small play on vera if he is a heavy under dog

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: schmacko
Date: September 14, 2009 at 11:15 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

zY said:
If Vera comes in as the dog, which he will probably end up even if the bookies don't put him there, I'll jump all over him. I think this fight is closer to 50/50 if not the edge to Vera. I see it as a less exaggerated version of A.Silva/Hendo, but still a similar style matchup. Vera totally outclasses Randy standing up, and he has a very underrated ground game, especially defensive. Randy MAY be able to take Brandon down but it won't be with ease. And once he gets it there, I don't think he'll be able to do much. However, if he can do it for 2 rounds out of 3 and Brandon is unable to get up (which he very well may) he could very easily take a decision.
Which reminds me that 3 round fights are ***.
Click to expand...
+1 This is pretty much my thoughts exactly.
I'd like to get Vera as the dog. I really have no idea how the lines are going to open and how they'll potnetially move though. My thoughts are that money will flow more heavily toward couture since he's gotta be the fan favorite in this one, but I really don't know.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: zY
Date: September 14, 2009 at 01:24 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

The Sherdog consensus seems to be that this is a gimme fight for Randy, so that's why I'm thinking the line will go that way.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: September 14, 2009 at 02:27 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

i will keep in mind there is a HUGE difference in fighting big nog at HW and fighting brandon vera at LHW. i have a feeling that randy will give a better showing than last time. he is naturally a huge LHW not a small small HW. although being in multiple submission attempts by BIG NOG and escaping every time isnt all that bad. it wasnt good enough for a win but some of those attempts were in deep.
i have no feeling for this fight so far. it all depends on the line, i want to see it first. i dont like the line of thinking already that def the dog is the bet to go w/, sometimes its best just to stay away from fights that have that kind of initial feel.
SPX said:
I don't think I'd go heavy on either guy, though. Like you say, this seems like one that could go either way.
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if there is +EV one way and a bet has value, i def think the right play here is not to go heavy on either guy unless one of them gets +280 or higher which prob will not happen. not even close to that i would say. both guys have alot of questions that need to be answered and this fight will help give some answers. both fighters here will be alot easier to wager on after this fight.
i dont even want to say a fav on the line, if i had to id say couture bc theres no reason to say vera would be the fav except coutures last fight reflections. and that was against a HEATHLY BIG NOG.
a Major factor for vera will be how successful he is at using his reach advantage. the more he can keep randy outside instead of closer so randy can 'dirty box' the better vera's chances go up. of course he will not be able to do this the whole fight but the more the better. if utilizes inside and outside leg kicks, this will help in alot of areas, keeping randy at bay, beating down randys legs will help take the explosiveness out of his take downs, and overall striking points. i'm kind of think for vera to use forrest's game plan against rampage in this fight w/couture. i think it would make sense

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: PredictionPain
Date: September 14, 2009 at 03:54 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

I say Randy grinds out a decision in a rather uneventful fight. The line will have to be enticing for me to put money on it though, this is one i'll probably avoid

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: monteaz
Date: September 14, 2009 at 03:56 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

Anyone have a line yet?

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: smarty
Date: September 14, 2009 at 07:52 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

zY said:
If Vera comes in as the dog, which he will probably end up even if the bookies don't put him there, I'll jump all over him.
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If I did any online betting, I would do the same.
Can anyone really justify Couture, who was dropped multiple times in his fight with Big Nog, having a chance against Vera, who has ridiculous standup? Say what you will about Couture's wrestling game, but he won't have a chance to get the fight to the ground if he's getting blasted by jabs and leg kicks.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: September 14, 2009 at 07:58 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

smarty said:
If I did any online betting, I would do the same.
Can anyone really justify Couture, who was dropped multiple times in his fight with Big Nog, having a chance against Vera, who has ridiculous standup? Say what you will about Couture's wrestling game, but he won't have a chance to get the fight to the ground if he's getting blasted by jabs and leg kicks.
Click to expand...
Well Vera has good stand up, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Nog looked better in that fight than in any other fight he's had in the UFC and when was the last time Vera KOd someone?

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Dankworth
Date: September 14, 2009 at 08:34 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

Randy seems to fight to win, committing even if it puts him in situations of more danger. Vera, in his last fight, seemed to be fighting to not lose. I would agree that he does not seem to display the killer instinct that he had in the past.
Randy addressed the fact that marital strife impacted him psychologically in some fights in the last few years when preparing for some fights. Is he done with his divorce to Kim? Will it still affect him, and to what degree?
Though Vera has looked comparatively unimpressive since his layoff/drop to LHW, he still has great standup and a good ground game. I still see Randy taking him down eventually and causing damage. I think Randy wins this two out of three times, maybe more. Vera looked underwhelming against Soszynski, I really think he would have to step up his game to keep up with Randy. Randy is getting this fight as a beginning of a LHW run I suspect. If Vera can't catch Randy coming in like Nog did, I think Randy takes it. And if Nog couldn't submit Randy after knocking him down, I doubt Vera could submit Randy.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: zY
Date: September 15, 2009 at 12:48 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

Another crucial factor that nobody has mentioned is speed.
I think it's safe to say Vera will easily have a marked speed advantage in this fight. And speed kills.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: September 15, 2009 at 01:00 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

I am going to hit the tapes before making a final decision. I know Couture seems ageless, but he looked like a 46 year old against Nog. 46. Just think about that. 46 years old. Vera has blown a couple chances in the past but he looks very confident and determined at this point in time. 2 years ago this would be a different fight, but
right now
I see way more positives for Vera...^speed being one of them.
I will say this. The only way Couture wins this is by decision. There is zero chance that he submits Vera and no one has ever put a dent in Vera's chin.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: September 15, 2009 at 01:18 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

GuidaClayAllDay said:
I know Couture seems ageless, but he looked like a 46 year old against Nog.
Click to expand...
Really? I'll grant you that it looks like the years are slowly catching up to him, but he's still in better shape that most people of any age.
GuidaClayAllDay said:
Vera has blown a couple chances in the past but he looks very confident and determined at this point in time.
Click to expand...
He's looking better. I was actually impressed with him in the Krzystof fight, unlike a lot of other people. But he still doesn't look like he's going to be KOing anyone any time soon.
GuidaClayAllDay said:
I will say this. The only way Couture wins this is by decision. There is zero chance that he submits Vera and no one has ever put a dent in Vera's chin.
Click to expand...
I think you make some good points, but there are other things to consider. For one, it's true that Vera has never had big issues being taken down, but when was the last time he fought a good wrestler? He's fought good BJJ guys . . . but BJJ guys, while being good once they're on the ground, often aren't that great at actually getting the fight there. I guess you could say Reese Andy, but I wouldn't put Andy in the same Category as Couture.
Also, while I agree that Couture won't be knocking Vera out, like I mentioned above, I don't think Vera's going to be putting Couture in any serious danger either. The more I think about it, the more I think that this fight will come down to who can execute their gameplan: If Vera can stay away from Couture then he'll outpoint him on the feet. But if Couture can get Vera down, or even just consistently get him up against the cage, then Couture should take the decision.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: September 15, 2009 at 01:45 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/couture-vera.17571/

Can't say I like either in this fight. Randy's last fight against Nog had me burned, I really dont know where either of these fighters are right now. Vera looked mediocre against Kryzstof in a striking war he should have dominated.
Avoiding any bets on this!