Diaz/Penn
- Thread starter Nastycrow
- Start date
Can I ask about the logic behind that? Not that I'm betting on Diaz, just curious.
The flip-side of the argument is, arguably best cardio @ 170 vs the worst, Diaz is tough as nails and him getting pummeled or strangled just seems unlikely, BJ's wins usually come from a finish and not the cards. I give BJ the edge in most of the tangibles, but this is just a tough tough one to size up.
PredictionPain said:
Can I ask about the logic behind that? Not that I'm betting on Diaz, just curious.
The flip-side of the argument is, arguably best cardio @ 170 vs the worst, Diaz is tough as nails and him getting pummeled or strangled just seems unlikely, BJ's wins usually come from a finish and not the cards. I give BJ the edge in most of the tangibles, but this is just a tough tough one to size up.
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Penn has fought and proven himself against the best in the world (he recently won the first two rounds against the second best WW in the world, in a fight where he was undersized and matched up terribly).
Penn is far more skilled, well rounded, and physically gifted than any fighter Diaz has ever faced. Diaz's toughness, chin, and heart (along with very good, well rounded skills) has been enough to beat the fighters he has faced, but he hasn't exactly dominated them. IMO Penn is too well rounded and proven for Diaz.
Im in no way a Penn fan but i think that he takes this fight. Diaz is a good fighter but he hasnt faced the competition that Penn has. His last 3 wins are Daley, Santos and KJ Noons... there are not scrubs but they are no Fitch, Hughes, Frankie Edgar. Diaz does have great Cardio but i dont think the pepper shots that he throws are going to give Penn any trouble, hes going to walk through them like he does most punches. Just the level of competition along with Diaz not really proving himself against anyone note worthy is enough to think that BJ takes this fight. Combine that with the fact that BJ is extremely talented on the ground and on the feet with an iron chin makes me believe that he will at least win the first 2 rounds in a convincing fashion and still drop the ball in the 3rd. Either way he still wins the fight and at -130 that is a steal. i think this fight is going to a dec soo maybe Diaz/Penn go the distance line will be something like +150, sounds like a safe bet to me.
wow....really surprised by the analysis so far.
I see Diaz winning a boxing match. Penn will stand with stand up guys, and I think Diaz has better boxing + reach and height....I just don't see how BJ wins really. Diaz pushes a really hard pace on the feet, and his punches have more substance then you are giving them credit. I see Diaz winning a boxing match with a possible stoppage late.
moparjr253 said:
Im in no way a Penn fan but i think that he takes this fight. Diaz is a good fighter but he hasnt faced the competition that Penn has. His last 3 wins are Daley, Santos and KJ Noons... there are not scrubs but they are no Fitch, Hughes, Frankie Edgar. Diaz does have great Cardio but i dont think the pepper shots that he throws are going to give Penn any trouble, hes going to walk through them like he does most punches. Just the level of competition along with Diaz not really proving himself against anyone note worthy is enough to think that BJ takes this fight. Combine that with the fact that BJ is extremely talented on the ground and on the feet with an iron chin makes me believe that he will at least win the first 2 rounds in a convincing fashion and still drop the ball in the 3rd. Either way he still wins the fight and at -130 that is a steal. i think this fight is going to a dec soo maybe Diaz/Penn go the distance line will be something like +150, sounds like a safe bet to me.
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agree about BJ's head movement / elusiveness playing a big factor, but beating Daley & Noons in standup wars are decent feathers in your cap. Lesser competition, yes, but it's not like Diaz played to their weaknesses, he could never give Daley the Koscheck treatment. The quality of competition argument is valid, but maybe not 100% applicable b/c Strikeforce matchmaking has really been in Diaz's favor. Fitch would work Diaz BADLY if you ask me, but that's not the fight he's getting. I'm split on this, I do see decision, might be a case when Diaz could Leonard Garcia a himself a decision b/c ringside judges might just see a such a volume of punches for 15 minutes that BJ's elusiveness / striking accuracy doesn't score enough for the ringside crowd.
Again, wasn't saying value either way, just wanted to toss a counterargument into a thread where it's "fighter XYZ is a steal" & no reasoning behind the statement
Okay maybe I shouldn't have used the word "steal" when describing Penns line. When I wager I set a line by before it comes out which most of you probably do and depending on how far off I am depends on the wager. I thought Penn would be around -200 honestly so getting him at -130 would be a great price. Not saying im wagering on the fight but I believe he has the edge. Ill give him the Daley fight. Daley has some.lethal standup and Diaz got hit HARD several times and still came back to win. I was extremely impressed. Noons not so much. I understand that it was mostly standup but Noons is a natural lightweight so the reach and size was in favor of Diaz completely. Penn is very good at finding small openings and I think with Diaz style he leaves alot of them. You're right though this could end up like Diego/Kampmann or Garuda/Zombie. Definitely going to stay away from this fight, sit back relax and watch two sluggers go at it.