DREAM 16
- Thread starter Nastycrow
- Start date
I like Aurelio here as a heavy dog. He should have a strength advantage, and obviously has some serious submission defense. His standup isn't great, but should be enough to give him an edge over Aoki in that department. He may have an edge as well in the wrestling department, although Aoki doesnt care about whether he's on the bottom or top. Aokis ground game is sick, no doubt, but its possible it may be nullified here, at least in part. I havent seen Aoki up against a sub expert of Aurelios caliber in a while. When he has been, its been a decision win it seems. For +300, I'm all over it.
Miller here at -300 is free money, as far as I can see. Only been subbed once, almost ten years ago. I wish Sakuraba would just retire. I love that guy, and have had to watch him being beaten to a pulp too many times.
Ishii should also be a good bet. The guy is an Olympic Gold medalist and he trains with Couture.
The hulk champion is just overrated and he's fighting cans lately. Look for Ishii to control this fight withJudo and good ground control.
Ishii may lose by sub here but he could get the stoppage also.
I like Ishii to win a fairly easy fight.
I put a small wager on Ishii, but was hesitant to put more, because a) the scoring system is different and takedowns arent as valued. b)Japanese fighters tend to throw gameplans out the window, stand, bang, and go down with "honor". Minowa probably wins if Ishii does that. He outweighs Minowa by a fair margin though on top of the skill advantage in grappling.
Minowaman beating Soko doesn't look so much like a fluke anymore after seeing Soko/Houston take place.
With no judo experience myslef, I've been trying to figure out the significance of leg locks in judo. Apparently they are banned in competition but dojos still teach them, depending on the dojo. I would assume Ishii has some familarity with leg locks as he is highly decorated in the martial art. After some digging I learned Ishii is a brown belt bjj but it was given to him immediately when he started training bjj. But multiple people have said this guy has amazing talent on the ground, has tremendous natural ability in general, and works hard.
Experience seems to be Ishii's biggest issue. He was fed a can in May that he apparently handled easily. He also was DQ'd in a MMA exhibition match in June when he failed to stop punching an opponent at the end of a round (I guess it's in the judo blood...I'm looking at you Soko)
Ishii is also taking this fight last minute, but Minowaman doesn't bring a furious pace.
In hindsight, I feel foolish for not seeing the betting opportunity in Yoshida at the NYE show. As old as Yoshida is, he had superior mma skills compared to Ishii. It was Ishii's pro debut!
It also seems apparent that DREAM doesn't really set up fights to gradually build a fighter into a superstar like the UFC. With their limited resources they are always looking for a matchup that will sell. (I have a hard time believing Mayhem/Saku will be competitive...but does Ishii/Minowa also fall into this category? Does Ishii not have the skills to hang with Minowa?)
Since Minowa's loss to Shibata, he has faced opponents that have serious flaws to their MMA game. You can argue that Ishii is still very green to the sport, but he has been working to become an elite fighter and has the potential, unlike Sapp, Choi, Nortje, Ambriz, and Lee who have mediocre mma skills.
I'll make a bet on Ishii at dog numbers as I think it will be hard for Minowa to take Ishii down and win by his trademark leg/feet subs.
I'm not a fan of bettig on Japan mma as you know that the fix is in sometimes, especially when it comes down to the judges.
But I believe that there could be value in Aurellio, he's got the jits to cancel out what Aoki has to offer and his overall game could be better than Aoki's as he comes out of a solid camp in ATT. Miller seems like a lock but I just can't bet solid money on Jap mma so i'm gonna parlay him in with Marcus, the same for Mousasi too as I can't lay on -1500.
0.2u on Parlay, Aurellio, Miller, Mousasi to win 1u
Chris_B said:
I'm not a fan of bettig on Japan mma as you know that the fix is in sometimes, especially when it comes down to the judges.
But I believe that there could be value in Aurellio, he's got the jits to cancel out what Aoki has to offer and his overall game could be better than Aoki's as he comes out of a solid camp in ATT. Miller seems like a lock but I just can't bet solid money on Jap mma so i'm gonna parlay him in with Marcus, the same for Mousasi too as I can't lay on -1500.
0.2u on Parlay, Aurellio, Miller, Mousasi to win 1u
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I've been delving into the japanese fixing issue....besides Dong Sik Yoon/Saffedine I can't recall a fighter getting robbed by the judges recently. At the Dynamite 2009 show we saw some early stoppages. I'm not an expert in the art of throwing/fixing fights, so I understand the restraint to go heavy on the card. I'd be shocked if Ishii or Mayhem were invloved in losing on purpose.
It is worth noting that the 10 min 1st round, 5 minute 2nd round format (to be used at DREAM 16) leaves more holes for judges to steer a decision in the way they would like compared to the 3 round, 5 minute per round format.
Seriously I just don't see how Aoki can win his fight. Aurillio is a black belt in BJJ and never lost by Sub or tko in 30fights. He has better hands and Wrestling then aoki.I think this is a bad matchup for Aoki and a solid BET here IMO. But we never know with Aoki ,once this fight hits the ground it is a diff story.
Still not sure about this but I like Aurellio at this odd.
Ishii + Aurelio = Money IMO.
I do not bet on mma but if you guys Consider making money, go with Ishii.... Marcus also is a decent bet with this odds.
I have no proof, but Shibata-Minowa looked VERY FIXED.
It is Minowa's only loss lately, and it looked like two former pro wrestlers working together.
Looked like Minowa "put him over" as they say.
Japan is in desperate need of stars beyond Minowa, Aoki, the aging Sakuraba.
The Shibata fights looked super fishy.
fightfightfight said:
I like Aurelio here as a heavy dog. He should have a strength advantage, and obviously has some serious submission defense. His standup isn't great, but should be enough to give him an edge over Aoki in that department. He may have an edge as well in the wrestling department, although Aoki doesnt care about whether he's on the bottom or top. Aokis ground game is sick, no doubt, but its possible it may be nullified here, at least in part. I havent seen Aoki up against a sub expert of Aurelios caliber in a while. When he has been, its been a decision win it seems. For +300, I'm all over it.
Miller here at -300 is free money, as far as I can see. Only been subbed once, almost ten years ago. I wish Sakuraba would just retire. I love that guy, and have had to watch him being beaten to a pulp too many times.
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couldnt agree more. will be making plays on miller, aurelio, and of course MINOWAMAN!!!!!!!
ghostkid said:
I have no proof, but Shibata-Minowa looked VERY FIXED.
It is Minowa's only loss lately, and it looked like two former pro wrestlers working together.
Looked like Minowa "put him over" as they say.
Japan is in desperate need of stars beyond Minowa, Aoki, the aging Sakuraba.
The Shibata fights looked super fishy.
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explain that a little more...very interesting.
I have Chase Beebe pulling off an upset. While Aurelio seems to be the more likely dog to win Aoki has fought some pretty good fighters. Another thing Brazilians don't fair too well against leg locks. Don't be surprised if Aoki applies one on Maximus. Also, look how scared Melendez was to go to the ground with Aoki. This is a man that trains with Jake Shields, the Diaz bros, and who trains under Carlson Gracie where if you plan to be a black belt, then be prepared as a purple belt to be tapping black belts with ease.
GOODNIGHTIRENE said:
why would melendez even take the chance of going to ground when was owning aoki in the standup. aoki always goes for single legs to get his oppponet down, why would melendez play into his gameplan
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Which is the point I am trying to make. Aoki is that intimidating on the ground. Aoki has that type of rep that even the best grapplers won't test him there. Not sure if I remember Aurelio being a great stand up striker. Now anything can happen in MMA, but I like Chase's chances as a dog over Aurelio.