Insomnia's MMA Picks

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: July 19, 2009 at 07:26 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

This thread is will just be a place for me to keep my picks on record. I'm still new to sports gambling, I expect to have up and downs. This is the first time I decided to actually gamble properly, with a small bankroll, units, and research. Feel free to comment, question. Thanks

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: July 19, 2009 at 07:30 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

Dream 10 Picks
MARIUS ZAROMSKIS +450
(MARIUS ZAROMSKIS vrs HAYATO SAKURAI) Risking 1.5 U : To Win: 6.75 U
VITOR RIBEIRO +185
(VITOR RIBEIRO vrs SHINYA AOKI) Risking 2.5 U : To Win 4.626 U
JESSE TAYLOR +185
(JESSE TAYLOR vrs DONG SIK YOON) Risking 1 U : To Win 1.85 U
ANDRE GALVAO +250
ODDS TO WIN 2009 DREAM WELTERWEIGHT GP Risking 0.5 U : To Win 1.25 U
Riding the underdogs tonight, lots of value in them. Bring home the money dogs!

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: MoDogg
Date: July 19, 2009 at 10:48 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

insomnia said:
Dream 10 Picks
MARIUS ZAROMSKIS +450
(MARIUS ZAROMSKIS vrs HAYATO SAKURAI) Risking 1.5 U : To Win: 6.75 U
VITOR RIBEIRO +185
(VITOR RIBEIRO vrs SHINYA AOKI) Risking 2.5 U : To Win 4.626 U
JESSE TAYLOR +185
(JESSE TAYLOR vrs DONG SIK YOON) Risking 1 U : To Win 1.85 U
ANDRE GALVAO +250
ODDS TO WIN 2009 DREAM WELTERWEIGHT GP Risking 0.5 U : To Win 1.25 U
Riding the underdogs tonight, lots of value in them. Bring home the money dogs!
Click to expand...
i read up on the whole Sakurai thing and him missing weight, so i have a little on Zaromskis and had Ribiero before. i love waking up with more money in the acct. the next morning from these Japanese shows, so hopefuly it works out.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: July 20, 2009 at 06:43 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

Dream 10 Results: 2 - 1, +5.60 U
Zaromskis paid off well, with an upset on sakurai. Wow what an entertaining fight!
Jesse Taylor man-handled Dong, damaging his ankle on a takedown.
Galvao was upset in a very controversial decision with High. (I took a prop bet for Galvao to win it all)
Shaolin vs Aoki fight was lackluster, really not enough action to give either a real win.
Good show overall, just going to relax and watch the final championship match now.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: July 20, 2009 at 11:03 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

Good call on Zaromiskis and Taylor. The very first MMA event I bet on I put money on all the underdogs and lost every single penny. Since then I've been very gunshy about betting on the longshots.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: August 02, 2009 at 02:51 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

Sengoku 9
Oh boy, not feeling too confident with this event. Taking odds on these fights, I'm not too familiar with Japanese MMA. But crazy things happen in Japan, so here we go.
MARLON SANDRO -220 (MICHIHIRO OMIGAWA vrs MARLON SANDRO) Risking 2.5U to win 1.136 U
KAZUYUKI FUJITA -110 (BLAGOI IVANOV vrs KAZUYUKI FUJITA) Risking 1.5U to win 1.364 U
KAZUHIRO NAKAMURA +215 (KAZUHIRO NAKAMURA vrs KAZUO MISAKI) Risking 1U to win 2.15U
DAN HORNBUCKLE +310 (DAN HORNBUCKLE vrs AKIHIRO GONO) Risking 0.5U to win 1.55U
MIZUTO HIROTA +320 (MIZUTO HIROTA vrs SATORU KITAOKA) Risking 0.5U to win 1.6U
Very unconfident about any fight except for Sandro. Lets hope we get some upsets!

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: August 02, 2009 at 03:15 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

Sengoku 9 Results
So, crazy things as usual happend.
Sandro was upset in a BS decision in a fight everyone knows he won.
Fujita slobbered it out with Ivanov, losing a decision.
Nakamura was brutalized by Misaki.
But two big underdog bets that pulled through were Dan Hornbuckle with his amazing head kick KO, and Hirota's amazing upset.
Japanese MMA continues to deliver crazy decisions and upsets.
Event: 2-3 -1.85U
OVERALL: 3-4 +3.75U

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: August 08, 2009 at 10:08 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

UFC 101
Playing this event fairly conservatively, heres what I got:
BJ PENN -210 (KENNY FLORIAN vrs BJ PENN ) 3U / 1.42U
FORREST GRIFFIN +290 (FORREST GRIFFIN vrs ANDERSON SILVA ) 0.5U/1.45U
RICARDO ALMEIDA -165 (KENDALL GROVE vrs RICARDO ALMEIDA ) 1.5U/0.9U
JOSH NEER -210 (KURT PELLEGRINO vrs JOSH NEER ) 1U/.47U
I expect BJ and Almeida to win, less sure about Neer, and simply playing Forrest because the price is right.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: August 09, 2009 at 03:07 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

Like expected, BJ Penn dominated his fight and shows you can't bet against him at 155. His early line values are looking like steals right now.
Forrest was also annihilated by the spider, who shows once again that he's the best striker in the business.
Neer was pretty disappointing in his showing, and Almeida dominated on points with takedowns, although when he got caught in that armbar it was a bit scary.
Event: 2-2 +0.83U
Overall: 5-7 +4.58U
*I also found out a had a few bucks on sportsinteraction, so I threw together a parlay of BJ, Almeida and Anderson and turned around $8 to $22. Yay! I'm putting all that on Torres tomorrow.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: August 09, 2009 at 05:16 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

WEC 42: Torres vs Bowles
This should be a fun event, the little guys ALWAYS deliver awesomeness. Heres my plays:
MIGUEL TORRES -340 (BRIAN BOWLES vrs MIGUEL TORRES ) 3U/0.88U
JAVIER VAZQUEZ -115 (JAVIER VAZQUEZ vrs LC DAVIS) 2U/1.74U
JEFF CURRAN +165 (JEFF CURRAN vrs TAKEYA MIZUGAKI) 1U/1.65U
Miguel is a given, the guy is p4p greatness. I like what I see in Vazquez and I dislike what I see in Davis, so seems like a good bet for me. I expect Jeff Curran to give Mizugaki a decent fight and take him to a decision. I also expect Leonard Garcia and Rani Yahya to rip apart their opponents as sure wins, but they're just too expensive.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: August 09, 2009 at 08:04 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

insomnia said:
Like expected, BJ Penn dominated his fight and shows you can't bet against him at 155.
Click to expand...
If that was domination, then what do you call Silva vs Forrest? On the contrary, BJ actually made me very nervous last night. He was landing more shots, but Kenny was controlling him and up to the choke I think there was a very real possibility of the judges scoring it in Kenny's favor. It was NOT the destruction/domination that I was hoping for and expecting.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: August 09, 2009 at 08:45 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

SPX said:
insomnia said:
Like expected, BJ Penn dominated his fight and shows you can't bet against him at 155.
Click to expand...
If that was domination, then what do you call Silva vs Forrest? On the contrary, BJ actually made me very nervous last night. He was landing more shots, but Kenny was controlling him and up to the choke I think there was a very real possibility of the judges scoring it in Kenny's favor. It was NOT the destruction/domination that I was hoping for and expecting.
Click to expand...
True, haha. The way I see it, Kenny could never put BJ in any sort of danger. Couldn't take him down, couldn't strike with him. So he tried GSP's strategy of holding him and wearing him out, which didn't quite work out. Every exchange I saw had BJ landing more shots and more power. In my view, Kenny had no way to win the fight, even if it had gone 5 rounds to a decision, I'm confident BJ would have won anyway.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: August 09, 2009 at 10:36 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

insomnia said:
True, haha. The way I see it, Kenny could never put BJ in any sort of danger. Couldn't take him down, couldn't strike with him. So he tried GSP's strategy of holding him and wearing him out, which didn't quite work out. Every exchange I saw had BJ landing more shots and more power. In my view, Kenny had no way to win the fight, even if it had gone 5 rounds to a decision, I'm confident BJ would have won anyway.
Click to expand...
You never do know about the judges. What will they score more highly, a few seconds of exchanges in which BJ does more damage, or several minutes of Kenny controlling BJ against the cage? I'll just say that I was nervous. I was dead silent in the bar and happy as hell that BJ got that choke.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: August 09, 2009 at 11:23 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

WEC 42 Torres vs Bowles Results:
f*ck me. all losses. curran and vazquez were imo, bad decisions. (didnt see the vazquez fight but consensus opinion and play by play).
MIGUEL TORRES UPSET AHHHHHH NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Event: 0-3 -6U
Overall: 5-10 -1.41U
Sigh.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: schmacko
Date: August 10, 2009 at 10:48 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

insomnia said:
True, haha. The way I see it, Kenny could never put BJ in any sort of danger. Couldn't take him down, couldn't strike with him. So he tried GSP's strategy of holding him and wearing him out, which didn't quite work out. Every exchange I saw had BJ landing more shots and more power. In my view, Kenny had no way to win the fight, even if it had gone 5 rounds to a decision, I'm confident BJ would have won anyway.
Click to expand...
In my opinion BJ won every round of that fight. Kenny had a gameplan and was sticking to it, but it really didn't seem like it was working. BJ never really looked that tired to me. I don't know if that's due to his new training program or what.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: August 10, 2009 at 11:23 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

schmacko said:
insomnia said:
True, haha. The way I see it, Kenny could never put BJ in any sort of danger. Couldn't take him down, couldn't strike with him. So he tried GSP's strategy of holding him and wearing him out, which didn't quite work out. Every exchange I saw had BJ landing more shots and more power. In my view, Kenny had no way to win the fight, even if it had gone 5 rounds to a decision, I'm confident BJ would have won anyway.
Click to expand...
In my opinion BJ won every round of that fight. Kenny had a gameplan and was sticking to it, but it really didn't seem like it was working. BJ never really looked that tired to me. I don't know if that's due to his new training program or what.
Click to expand...
I had the fight 2-1 Kenny going into the 4th and that's how a friend of mine scored it as well. The judges by and large seem to value several minutes of control over a few moments of striking. I'll just say that I was nervous in the fourth because I felt that if it was a 3 round fight then BJ may have lost.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: August 10, 2009 at 11:25 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

insomnia said:
WEC 42 Torres vs Bowles Results:
f*ck me. all losses. curran and vazquez were imo, bad decisions. (didnt see the vazquez fight but consensus opinion and play by play).
MIGUEL TORRES UPSET AHHHHHH NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Event: 0-3 -6U
Overall: 5-10 -1.41U
Sigh.
Click to expand...
That's pretty rough. Last night was the night of upsets. Sorry to see you're in the negatives. I'm sure you'll dig yourself out by the next event, though.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: marctheshark
Date: August 11, 2009 at 09:59 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

I went 0-3 too on WEC with Lamas, Pixaio, and Benavidez. As far as Penn/Florian, I think the "old" BJ would have won this fight too. Florian didn't do anything that I thought would "wear out" BJ. In previous fights Penn gassed when he was taken down by good wrestlers and was working off his back or when the standup was really busy. Florian never really pushed the pace and I think that even the old Penn could have won a five round decision. I will say that BJ looked like he was in the best shape of his life and I can' wait to see him fight Diego Sanchez (hopefully in Hawaii). Diego will give Penn a better fight and has the mindset not to let a crowd of 30,000 people at the Aloha Bowl? rattle him. Can't wait!

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: August 15, 2009 at 05:24 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

Strikeforce: Carano vs Cyborg
CRISTIANE SANTOS -155 (CRISTIANE SANTOS vrs GINA CARANO ) 3.5U/2.258U
JESSE TAYLOR +150 (JESSE TAYLOR vrs JAY HIERON) .5U/.75U
RENATO SOBRAL +180 (RENATO SOBRAL vrs GEGARD MOUSASI ) .5U/.9U
MITSUHIRO ISHIDA +210 (MITSUHIRO ISHIDA vrs GILBERT MELENDEZ ) .5U/1.05U
Cyborg is going to rip Gina a new hole. I like the underdogs as well, they are very live dogs and each has a good shot at winning.
I REALLY think Babalu is going to win if he gets this to the ground. But I'm apprehensive to put more money on him because it seems like he might try to stand and trade. I wish I could have gotten Babalu at +200 but I don't have accounts on other books.
Ishida can take this to a decision and win on points, already has a win over Melendez, but Gilbert is no joke, I expect him to win otherwise. +210 on Ishida is a good deal though.
Jesse can take his fight to the ground and muscle Hieron around, hopefully eeking out a decision. Again, wish I could have gotten +175 but no dice.
Best of luck.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: untouchableF
Date: August 15, 2009 at 07:40 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/insomnias-mma-picks.15534/

insomnia said:
Strikeforce: Carano vs Cyborg
CRISTIANE SANTOS -155 (CRISTIANE SANTOS vrs GINA CARANO ) 3.5U/2.258U
JESSE TAYLOR +150 (JESSE TAYLOR vrs JAY HIERON) .5U/.75U
RENATO SOBRAL +180 (RENATO SOBRAL vrs GEGARD MOUSASI ) .5U/.9U
MITSUHIRO ISHIDA +210 (MITSUHIRO ISHIDA vrs GILBERT MELENDEZ ) .5U/1.05U
Cyborg is going to rip Gina a new hole. I like the underdogs as well, they are very live dogs and each has a good shot at winning.
I REALLY think Babalu is going to win if he gets this to the ground. But I'm apprehensive to put more money on him because it seems like he might try to stand and trade. I wish I could have gotten Babalu at +200 but I don't have accounts on other books.
Ishida can take this to a decision and win on points, already has a win over Melendez, but Gilbert is no joke, I expect him to win otherwise. +210 on Ishida is a good deal though.
Jesse can take his fight to the ground and muscle Hieron around, hopefully eeking out a decision. Again, wish I could have gotten +175 but no dice.
Best of luck.
Click to expand...
I really hope your wrong about Mousasi, I got 4u on him when he was dog.