Jon Jones vs. Matt Hamill
- Thread starter Nastycrow
- Start date
MoDogg said:
I'm pretty sure the line yesterday had Jon Jones -200 and Hammil at a better number. Quick early line movement usually means someone hit Hammil fast, Performity maybe?
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That could be true, especially about Performify. I have heard that sportsbooks adjust their lines more by who is doing the betting and not necessarily the amount of money being wagered on any one side. Apparently the books will adjust even if a guy isn't betting lots of money but has a high winning percentage. The online betting would really help them with this as they will have records of all of your bets. Not sure how that works in Vegas though as I've never been there.
MoDogg said:
I'm pretty sure the line yesterday had Jon Jones -200 and Hammil at a better number. Quick early line movement usually means someone hit Hammil fast, Performity maybe?
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bestfightodds shows jones started at -185, then went to -200 and back
SPX said:
I'm holding off on this one to see what the line's going to do. If Bones gets under -150 then I'll make a play on him. If Hamill by some chance gets to +200 then I think that will be a good bet.
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IMO bones isn't going to go below -185, I think he'll get more expensive as time goes on.
insomnia said:
IMO bones isn't going to go below -185, I think he'll get more expensive as time goes on.
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I see reasons to bet on either guy, so for me it will all depend on the line. What sucks is this nether-region we're currently in where I do see a lot of value either way.
My head says Bones, but my gut says not to underestimate Hamill.
SPX said:
insomnia said:
IMO bones isn't going to go below -185, I think he'll get more expensive as time goes on.
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I see reasons to bet on either guy, so for me it will all depend on the line. What sucks is this nether-region we're currently in where I do see a lot of value either way.
My head says Bones, but my gut says not to underestimate Hamill.
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I could see this fight playing out in so many diferent wys, personally I'm just going to avoid it. I could see Hamil's wrestling being too much for Jones, or Jones' wrestling being enough to keep it standing. Hamil is so tough and such a good wrestler, Jones has great takedowns too and has a ton of talent. Even though I won't have money on it, I am really looking forward to this fight.
ZedzDead said:
I could see this fight playing out in so many diferent wys, personally I'm just going to avoid it. I could see Hamil's wrestling being too much for Jones, or Jones' wrestling being enough to keep it standing. Hamil is so tough and such a good wrestler, Jones has great takedowns too and has a ton of talent. Even though I won't have money on it, I am really looking forward to this fight.
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I think it's going to be a good fight.
Personally, I actually believe that wrestling won't play much into this fight. Hamill doesn't usually spend a lot of time trying to take guys down and GnP them. If you go back and watch his fights, he mostly uses his wrestling to keep fights standing, and he does that very well. Bones may go for a takedown but I don't think he'll get it. Both Reese Andy and Mark Munoz have solid wrestling credentials and Hamill shrugged them off like they were children.
So the question is what happens on the feet. I think that Bones will have crisper, more technical striking, and he may be able to use this to outpoint Hamill, but I definitely don't see him (T)KOing him. But Hamill has some bad *** power in his hands and don't think he doesn't. Out of 7 wins, he has 5 TKOs and 1 KO. If he lands some good, clean shots on the relatively inexperienced Bones then it could be a short night for the up and comer.
SPX said:
ZedzDead said:
I could see this fight playing out in so many diferent wys, personally I'm just going to avoid it. I could see Hamil's wrestling being too much for Jones, or Jones' wrestling being enough to keep it standing. Hamil is so tough and such a good wrestler, Jones has great takedowns too and has a ton of talent. Even though I won't have money on it, I am really looking forward to this fight.
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I think it's going to be a good fight.
Personally, I actually believe that wrestling won't play much into this fight. Hamill doesn't usually spend a lot of time trying to take guys down and GnP them. If you go back and watch his fights, he mostly uses his wrestling to keep fights standing, and he does that very well. Bones may go for a takedown but I don't think he'll get it. Both Reese Andy and Mark Munoz have solid wrestling credentials and Hamill shrugged them off like they were children.
So the question is what happens on the feet. I think that Bones will have crisper, more technical striking, and he may be able to use this to outpoint Hamill, but I definitely don't see him (T)KOing him. But Hamill has some bad *** power in his hands and don't think he doesn't. Out of 7 wins, he has 5 TKOs and 1 KO. If he lands some good, clean shots on the relatively inexperienced Bones then it could be a short night for the up and comer.
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He uses his wrestling sometimes, he used it to get the decision against Petruzelli, he took Bisping down several times. I think he would have continued to try and take Franklin down, but Franklin almost arm bar'd hm from guard, he caught Franklin's leg several times and didn't finish the takedown. I'm going to assume he didn't use it in some of his other fights because he knew he was the better striker and just wanted to keep it standing. I remember watching Hamil on TUF doing takedown defense drills wth Bisping and Tito was laughing at Bisping because Hamil was defening the takedowns without using his hands. I think Hamil could win a decision by ground n pounding Jones, I'm just not sure what Hamil's gameplanning and fight IQ is like, and the best opponent I've seen Jones faceis Bonnar, that's basically why I'm staying away.
Also, I completly agree Jones will have little success putting Hamil on his back.
ZedzDead said:
He uses his wrestling sometimes, he used it to get the decision against Petruzelli, he took Bisping down several times.
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You know, I never did see the Petruzelli fight and it's been so long since I saw the Bisping fight that I don't remember that much about it, except that I definitely thought Hamill won AND I thought that he outstruck Bisping. Definitely the fights that are freshest in my mind though are the most recent.
ZedzDead said:
I think he would have continued to try and take Franklin down, but Franklin almost arm bar'd hm from guard, he caught Franklin's leg several times and didn't finish the takedown.
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This was a telling fight, because it showed that Hamill still has a long way to go. I think he's the definition of the phrase, "He'll never be champion, but he's a tough test for anyone."
ZedzDead said:
I think Hamil could win a decision by ground n pounding Jones, I'm just not sure what Hamil's gameplanning and fight IQ is like, and the best opponent I've seen Jones face is Bonnar, that's basically why I'm staying away.
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It's hard to be surprised in this sport, but I don't see a TKO via GnP in this fight for Hamill. It could happen, but I think that if Hamill's going to win then it's going to be because he keeps moving forward with heavy *** punches (see his fights with Andy or Munoz) and doesn't give Jones room to breathe. Eventually he'll catch Jones with something that puts Jones in a daze it's won't be long before it's lights out.
It's either that or Jones via decision due to technical striking.
ZedzDead said:
Also, I completly agree Jones will have little success putting Hamil on his back.
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Either in the Andy or Munoz fight I remember Joe Rogan saying that Hamill has NEVER been on his back in a UFC fight. Will Jones be the one to do it? Nah.
Jon Jones
Junior College Wrestling Champion at Iowa Central, Greco-Roman All-American in High School, 84 inch reach
9-0 Notable fights: Dominant Decision wins over Andre Gusamo and Stephen Bonnar, Submission win over Jake O'Brien
Jon “Bones" Jones is arguably the most hyped athlete in the UFC today…and rightfully so with his amazing body frame, takedown skills, and his flashy offensive strikes. He still very green…making his pro debut only 18 months ago.
Matt Hamill
Three-time NCAA D-III National Champion at RIT, gold and silver medals in Deaflympics
7-2 Notable fights: TKO win over Reese Andy, Head Kick KO over Mark Munoz, loss to Rich Franklin and controversial loss to Michael Bisping
Hamill is already coming off 2 wins against strong wrestlers...2 time D-1 All American Mark Munoz and 3 time D-1 All American Reese Andy. In both matches Hamill sprawled effectively and nullified their takedown attempts.
After watching Jones’s fights in the UFC…my first reaction was that he improved his weaknesses tremendously.
Jones likes to throw a lot of different strikes. He is very unpredictable…not just the flying knees and spinning elbows…but he mixes up his kicks and punches to the head, body, and legs very well. Bones’s punching was not technically sound in his fight with Andre Gusmao..but it looked much better against Jake O'Brien. He threw a lot of straight punches and used his jab very well…really getting the maximum benefit of his reach by keeping O’Brien on the outside.
After Jones was done throwing Bonnar around like a rag doll in the first 2 rounds of that his 2nd UFC fight, it looked like Jones was too tired to do the same in the 3rd…and gave Bonner the 3rd round. Against O’Brein Bonnar seemed a lot lighter on his feet, threw an ample amount of strikes in the first and second and was still going strong until the Sub win. I believe Jones at this point has the better endurance…he definitely has much better footwork.
It’s nice that we’ve already seen how Jones can perform against a fighter with a wrestling base…BUT it’s important to note that O’Brien is wrestling is second-rate compared to other wrestlers in the UFC. O’Brein was 14-18 his sophmore year at Purdue; he redshirted his first year and didn’t compete after his sophmore year. Hamill and Dan Henderson are likely the top 2 wrestlers at 185 with no close 3rd place.
Jones’s striking and his nimbleness on his feet have improved greatly to the point where I think Jones can win the fight with his unpredictable strikes on the feet. Hamill likes to limit his strikes to just punches…besides the Head Kick to Munoz Hammil really doesn’t throw kicks and he’s likely to be too slow to catch Jones with one.
The question that’s one everyone’s mind is who will be the better wrestler? Credentials-wise I'd like to think Hamill. Hamill was able to takedown Bisping and Rich Franklin, but he didn’t attempt any takedowns against Andy or Munoz. I don’t know if this was because he felt he was the better striker against Munoz and Andy or that with their wrestling backgrounds it would have been difficult to take them down.
Hamill will likely be too tired to take down Jones in the 3rd round. Jones’s sprawl was very effective against O’Brien, and with Jones’s long legs it will be harder for Hamill to finish a shot and wrap his arms around them.
But I think if Jones decides to throw too many wild spinning punches/elbows or flying knees, I think Hamill will capitalize and put Jones on the ground if timed properly.
Even if Hamill does manage to take Jones down, I’m not that worried because
he has displayed a lackluster ground and pound game
, and hasn't displayed any submission skills. Hamill failed to lock in an arm triangle on Bisping, and seems to not have much skill at passing the guard. Weighing in Jones’s size and wrestling skills, plus Hamill’s lack of takedown attempts/lack of damage done after the takedown…I don't think Hamill's wrestling gives him much upside.
People claim that Hamill’s striking has improved since TUF 3. While this may be true, I think his striking still needs more improvement. He is still often telegraphing his punches and and throwing them off-balance.
Side Notes:
-Hamill lately likes to use his left hand to hold his opponent’s head down while uppercutting the opponent with his right. This strategy worked against shorter opponents, but should not be of much use against the 6’4’’ Jones.
-Hamill can take a ton of punishment. Franklin was picking him a part with everything he had, yet Hamill showed no sign of slowing down. I can definitely see him stalking Jones the entire fight with Jones continuously on the move (but Jones was very successful doing this against O’Brien).
-We really haven’t seen Jon Jones’s chin tested. Bonnar and Gusmao are not known for their power, while Hamill definitely has power in his hands. I like to think that Jones will not be getting punched on his feet too much in this fight.
Conclusion: I think Hamill’s wrestling ability is getting too much credit…because he really hasn’t used it to much of an advantage (besides keeping the fight standing) over his last few fights. Jones will be changing levels and throwing punches and kicks all over Hamill's body, while Hamill’s striking is very limited and probably will struggle to get within range to strike due to Jones’s reach and fast footwork.
I think there’s good value on Jones until –200, and the value starts trickling away until –240. I probably wouldn’t consider Hamill a good value play until +280 (Sorry SPX you’re my boy).
Let me know what you guys think.
EDIT: I took Jones for 2.5u at -185...I might want to hedge to 2u. I doubt Jones's line will get better than -185.
Well I can't break it down like GCAD can but I see this fight staying on the feet because Jones will want it that way. No way that Hamill will be able to strike with Jones. I agree with GCAD that Hamill's best chance at getting a takedown will be when Bones is getting flashy. I would hope that he will be anticipating these chances and they should be part of his strategy going into this fight. They are likely to be the only chance he is going to get. The clearest and most obvious path of victory for either of the fighters is for Jones to keep it standing and finish by KO. The more I think about I'm really liking Jones in this. I think history will repeat itself and Hamill will lose to the superior striker much the same way he did to Franklin. Jones is the real deal. This could end very badly for Hamill.
GuidaClayAllDay said:
I probably wouldn’t consider Hamill a good value play until +280 (Sorry SPX you’re my boy).
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First off, great analysis. Extremely detailed. Good job!
Second. . .
Wow, +280. I would say that Jones should be the favorite, but I see it more of a 60/40 split. Remember that Jones is but a babe both in the UFC and MMA in general. He's 9-0 but has barely been fighting a year. Here are a few thoughts I have on this fight:
[*]Wrestling will cancel out. I don't even see it being much of a factor. Jones may try to go for a few takedowns but will realize it's a waste of his energy and his time. Hamill will want to keep it on the feet and that's exactly where this bout will be contested. If it DOES go to the ground, it doesn't stay there for more than 60 seconds.
[*]Jones has no chance at (T)KOing Hamill. As you said, Hamill has a great chin, and Jones' strikes have not looked particularly powerful save for those vicious spinning elbows. However, I do think he has more technical striking and will be able to outpoint Hamill, but. . .
[*]Hamill has crazy power and if his last few bouts are any indication, this power is increasing. You mentioned that neither Bonnar nor O'Brien are known for their power and I'd agree. We don't know how Bones will react if he gets hit with some clean shots from Hamill. He might react by sitting down and giving Hamill the TKO or he might just go to sleep.
I think that a bet could be justified in either direction at the current odds, but for all the reasons I listed above, I think that at +175 Hamill is worth a small bet.
marctheshark said:
Well I can't break it down like GCAD can but I see this fight staying on the feet because Jones will want it that way. No way that Hamill will be able to strike with Jones. I agree with GCAD that Hamill's best chance at getting a takedown will be when Bones is getting flashy. I would hope that he will be anticipating these chances and they should be part of his strategy going into this fight. They are likely to be the only chance he is going to get. The clearest and most obvious path of victory for either of the fighters is for Jones to keep it standing and finish by KO. The more I think about I'm really liking Jones in this. I think history will repeat itself and Hamill will lose to the superior striker much the same way he did to Franklin. Jones is the real deal. This could end very badly for Hamill.
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You could be right. Obviously with a .57u bet I'm not super-confident. But don't be too surprised if the Bones hype train gets derailed this time around.