I've run some analysis on the JUF based on my RPI+ rankings. First, some analysis of the teams:
Overall team RPI+, ranking:
Castellammarese-.611-76
buffaloblue-.556-92
Average JFC ranking:
Castellammarese-17.664-79
buffaloblue-15.591-85
Looks like Cast has the tougher team at first glance. Now, a look at the first round matchups. I have determined a win probability based off of the Log 5 formula using each fighter's RPI+ rating (the odds are an approximation base on the win probability determined). Also, I have seeded the fighters on each team based on the RPI+.
Castellammarese
#1-AceTruth23 -380
#14-Hostile +290
#15-clockwerk +195
#6-pilqs -240
#13-HITMAN1223 +230
#2-mmablaster -300
#3-bowlmoreoften -450
#16-mmastudent +355
#11-scooterdub +105
#10-AdamChance -125
#4-AnarchyElbows -125
#5-comebackkid +105
#8-icemantn -120
#9-SheerTerror +100
#7-Showdown -170
#12-twsjajms +140
buffaloblue
#4-BRAD -410
#15-hitchyaosubmitchya +325
#9-weeman26 +150
#1-EnderWiggin -185
#6-smcdonald5 -185
#11-NYR30AILD +150
#7-Bombstriker -550
#16-severedhand +400
#2-seufert420 -295
#13-ZeeCanuck +225
#5-doctorbadasscoffee -230
#12-chocolove +185
#10-Hbase +145
#3-Daywork -180
#14-Thundercat +230
#8-dublindevil83 -300
One more thing I did was attempt to run a simulation of the tournament. I used the first round matchups as the basis and following the first round I reseeded each team's remaining members and made fights between the two teams based on the best seed from one team facing the worst seed from the other team (I know this won't be exactly how the coaches choose to pick fights, but for simulation purposes it is sufficient.) Following the second round all remaining fighters are reseeded as a whole and fights are chosen without taking teams into consideration (as teams may be lopsided.) I ran the simulation 1000 times to determine the final probabilities.
Code:
Fighter 1stRndW 2ndRndW 3rdRndW 4thRndW Champ
1 AceTruth23 73.50% 59.30% 42.50% 26.60% 15.40%
2 bowlmoreoften 78.70% 56.50% 32.80% 17.40% 9.50%
3 BRAD 76.10% 46.30% 23.30% 11.90% 6.60%
4 seufert420 69.70% 43.50% 24.50% 14.30% 6.20%
5 EnderWiggin 41.30% 30.50% 21.60% 11.90% 5.90%
6 Bombstriker 93.00% 47.20% 22.80% 11.00% 5.20%
7 AnarchyElbows 53.80% 31.50% 18.80% 9.80% 4.80%
8 doctorbadasscoffee 66.10% 39.70% 19.70% 9.80% 4.60%
9 smcdonald5 59.20% 32.30% 16.30% 7.60% 4.30%
10 comebackkid 46.20% 29.70% 18.20% 8.90% 4.20%
11 mmablaster 30.30% 21.30% 14.40% 8.10% 3.70%
12 Daywork 43.80% 26.90% 14.70% 8.50% 3.50%
13 AdamChance 50.40% 26.10% 13.60% 5.80% 3.30%
14 Showdown 57.30% 28.90% 14.10% 6.80% 3.10%
15 weeman26 58.70% 25.60% 12.10% 5.80% 3.10%
16 icemantn 49.50% 24.60% 11.10% 5.10% 2.40%
17 SheerTerror 50.50% 27.10% 10.30% 4.80% 2.30%
18 scooterdub 49.60% 22.00% 10.10% 4.50% 2.30%
19 HITMAN1223 69.70% 25.20% 8.40% 2.80% 1.30%
20 Hbase 56.20% 24.10% 9.30% 3.10% 1.30%
21 pilqs 32.10% 15.70% 7.00% 3.20% 1.10%
22 dublindevil83 32.50% 14.60% 5.70% 2.40% 1.10%
23 clockwerk 67.90% 21.90% 5.80% 2.00% 1.00%
24 twsjajms 42.70% 15.80% 5.50% 1.80% 0.90%
25 NYR30AILD 40.80% 14.00% 5.00% 2.10% 0.90%
26 chocolove 33.90% 10.60% 2.60% 1.30% 0.60%
27 Thundercat 67.50% 14.60% 3.80% 0.90% 0.50%
28 Hostile 26.50% 7.20% 2.30% 1.10% 0.40%
29 mmastudent 21.30% 5.40% 1.70% 0.30% 0.20%
30 hitchyaosubmitchya 23.90% 3.40% 0.70% 0.20% 0.20%
31 ZeeCanuck 30.30% 7.80% 1.30% 0.20% 0.10%
32 severedhand 7.00% 0.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
The favorite in my projections is AceTruth23. I will try to update these after each round. Enjoy.