Originally posted by: warlock
Date: June 29, 2010 at 07:58 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/lets-share-our-picks-for-ufc-116.27315/
threed said:
0.9 on Akiyama-Soszynski Parlay to win 1.0u
May still go after the main event and/or Sotiropoulos depending on where his line opens on Bodog.
If you aren't thrilled with your selection, take a month off and come back in August when there are a lot more fights going on to select from. Don't chase lost money.
Click to expand...
I think Akiyama and Soz have about a 60% chance to win their fights.... so I'm not really feeling that parlay. Just a gut feeling that one of them is upset by their underrated opponent.
Bonnar was hanging well w/ Soz in their first fight, even though he was on his way to possibly losing the decision - it was still very close.
Akiyama is definitely the more complete MMA fighter, but he hasn't fought in a year and almost lost to Belcher. I think a motivated and rejuvenated Leben will pose some problems so
I hopped on him at +260 for a value play.
I fully agree with you on chasing lost money though... it will burn you just about every time. Play with your head, not your emotions. Only bet on select fights in which you feel you have an
advantage (study the fighters and trends, layoffs, who the judges are, etc.). And if you can't decide on a fighter that will win and feel it's 50/50 (eg. Brock v. Carwin) then go w/ the dog. In the long run, you'll
end up making a little cash if you consistently pick live dogs w/ a shot to win. I bet on the last Bellator and chose 3 out of 4 dogs (two at +300)... it paid off quite well. I also put a small play on Werdum (+450) even though I all but wrote him off against Fedor. Werdum backers are happy campers today. I can't say that I'll bet on him in the rematch though... a motivated pissed off Fedor is not one to bet against.
