My Big Plays UFC 103

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: untouchableF
Date: September 05, 2009 at 09:11 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

I just placed down a few big bets for UFC Fight Night, and UFC 103.
First, and the most controversial bet is 4u on Nover. I don't know, this bet is pure instinct, nothing to do with the line being mis priced or anything. I just think people are counting Nover out due to his last performance. He was runner up on TUF, was given mentioned as "The Next Anderson", reminded Dana of a "Young GSP". Did not live up to those names, but he has some potential, maybe not comparable to the other top fighters like GSP or Anderson but it's their. Also nothing Stout has done has impressed me at all.
Second. 4u on Cro Cop. I see this fight as being even, a coin flip. I managed to get this line at +119, incredibly mis priced IMO.
Third. 4u on Belfort. Franklin hasn't really impressed me, and all things point to Franklin keeping this fight standing. The new and calm Vitor should be able to get the TKO in 2nd/early 3rd. I managed to get this line @ +136.
Totals.
4u on Phillipe Nover (+171) - to win 6.84u
4u on Mirko Cro Cop(+119) - to win 4.76U
4u on Vitor Belfort (+136) - to win 5.44 U
Total: Risking 12u to Win 17.04u
Gutsy, I know.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: monteaz
Date: September 05, 2009 at 09:31 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

In my opinion you are in for a very bad night.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: untouchableF
Date: September 05, 2009 at 09:42 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

monteaz said:
In my opinion you are in for a very bad night.
Click to expand...
3 Underdogs, 3 very big bets, I see where your coming from, lets hope not.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: monteaz
Date: September 05, 2009 at 10:26 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

I think Cro Cop and Belfort are live, but i really don't think Nover has any real way to win. Stout is a pro with good takedown defense, and is way better in the standup. Nover is over rated (not that he is rated very high) and not even a full time fighter. Best bet on the card is the Cole Miller vs. Effrain. Cole is +135 or +140 and should be the favorite. Second best is Stout- i think he is a lock.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Bigoxx
Date: September 06, 2009 at 02:24 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

I think Stout will win. Nover has the advantage on the ground if he can get it there. I think Dos Santos will win, But Cro Cop could definatly win. I like Belfort to win, but you are risking alot.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: sunzfury
Date: September 06, 2009 at 04:03 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

I like the bet on Belfort. Don't like the bet on Cro Cop at all. I think Dos Santos will beat him easily. Cro Cop hasn't looked good in any of his UFC fights. He got beat in striking by both Kongo and Gonzaga ... followed by a questionable win over Al-Turk. Dos Santos is from Blackhouse and his standup is praised by Anderson Silva and Machida.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Gnarcore
Date: September 07, 2009 at 02:41 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

I think your 4 unit play on Nover is going to cost you. Sam Stout is one of the better strikers at 155lbs and while he doesn't pack a ton of power he is very techinally sound. His two fights against Fischer, one of the top 3 LW strikers in the division, Spencer had issues with Stout and in both fights it was rather close and really entertaining.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Sheriff
Date: September 17, 2009 at 05:58 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

I expect Vitor to save your loss on CroCop so you'll end up winning a unit even though I don't like your Vitor bet that much either.
But I'll tell you one thing, CroCop is in for a beating

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: untouchableF
Date: September 17, 2009 at 05:58 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

atteiaissas said:
I expect Vitor to save your loss on CroCop so you'll end up winning a unit even though I don't like your Vitor bet that much either.
But I'll tell you one thing, CroCop is in for a beating
Click to expand...
Yea Nover failed me. I think Nover was the more riskier bet, compared to CC and Belfort.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: MikeyHatTrick
Date: September 17, 2009 at 06:15 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

Nover/Stout was added to UFC 103?

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: osubuckeye4
Date: September 17, 2009 at 07:43 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

untouchableF said:
Second. 4u on Cro Cop. I see this fight as being even, a coin flip. I managed to get this line at +119, incredibly mis priced IMO.
Click to expand...
I'm not gonna say your wagers are good or bad, but I have to question the bit of logic I highlighted above.
If you value the fight as even money, and one side is SLIGHTLY better than even, is that really worth a 4 unit bet?
If you thought a guy was a +250 and you could get him at +269, would that be a gigantically mispriced line worth a huge play?
Cro Cop could completely win that fight, but a line being +19 off isn't a gigantic misprice...

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Sockbat
Date: September 18, 2009 at 10:08 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

osubuckeye4 said:
untouchableF said:
Second. 4u on Cro Cop. I see this fight as being even, a coin flip. I managed to get this line at +119, incredibly mis priced IMO.
Click to expand...
I'm not gonna say your wagers are good or bad, but I have to question the bit of logic I highlighted above.
If you value the fight as even money, and one side is SLIGHTLY better than even, is that really worth a 4 unit bet?
If you thought a guy was a +250 and you could get him at +269, would that be a gigantically mispriced line worth a huge play?
Cro Cop could completely win that fight, but a line being +19 off isn't a gigantic misprice...
Click to expand...
Unless betting for fun, I agree... Esp. if your trying to make cash long-term, Buck speaks the truth.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: September 18, 2009 at 06:46 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

osubuckeye4 said:
untouchableF said:
Second. 4u on Cro Cop. I see this fight as being even, a coin flip. I managed to get this line at +119, incredibly mis priced IMO.
Click to expand...
I'm not gonna say your wagers are good or bad, but I have to question the bit of logic I highlighted above.
If you value the fight as even money, and one side is SLIGHTLY better than even, is that really worth a 4 unit bet?
If you thought a guy was a +250 and you could get him at +269, would that be a gigantically mispriced line worth a huge play?
Cro Cop could completely win that fight, but a line being +19 off isn't a gigantic misprice...
Click to expand...
+1. 50/50 fight so you lay 4u? wheres the +EV?

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: SPX
Date: September 18, 2009 at 07:00 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/my-big-plays-ufc-103.17350/

UKdonkbet said:
+1. 50/50 fight so you lay 4u?
wheres the +EV?
Click to expand...
He'll find out tomorrow night. . .