"Picking with the odds" test results
- Thread starter Nastycrow
- Start date
NYR30 said:
So picking all of the favorites and locking them in odds order netted me 113 points and a loss.
Had I used my real set of picks, I would have only scored 94.
So yeah, it got me 19 points more, but I still lost, so no real difference made
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Lol. I did too and got 114 and lost. If I locked Hunt higher and hedged a KO I would've won.
I usually pick a dog or few but couldn't see any even Kanehara?
I don't see how giving every fight decision makes this work.No one using this method will give all decision.Bestfightodds has odds on how each fighter wins..why can't you use those?If the odds don't have ko,sub along with decision odds then use the most often selected method on tapology.I'm sure this has been brought up,i'm sorry I don't read all the threads but it doesn't make sense to do it this way.
I'll use the method/round I used for the event.
NYR30
1-Mark Hunt-DEC-5-------------4
10-Myles Jury-DEC-3------------13
6-Yoshihiro Akiyama-DEC-3----15
9-Miesha Tate-DEC-3------------18
8-Kiichi Kunimoto-DEC-3-------17
11-Kyoji Horiguchi-DEC-3-------14
7-Alex Caceres-DEC-3-----------0
2-Katsunori Kikuno-DEC-3------5
12-Hyun Gyu Lim-DEC-3---------15
5-Michinori Tanaka-DEC-3------0
4-Kazuki Tokudome-DEC-3-----0
3-Maximo Blanco-DEC-3--------12
TOTAL:----------113 (Jff opponent 119)
using my method/round
1-Mark Hunt-KO-5--------------7
10-Myles Jury-Sub-3------------13
6-Yoshihiro Akiyama-DEC-3---15
9-Miesha Tate-DEC-3-----------18
8-Kiichi Kunimoto-Sub-3-------14
11-Kyoji Horiguchi-KO-3-------17
7-Alex Caceres-Sub-3-----------0
2-Katsunori Kikuno-Ko-3-------5
12-Hyun Gyu Lim-KO-1---------21
5-Michinori Tanaka-DEC-3-----0
4-Kazuki Tokudome-DEC-3-----0
3-Maximo Blanco-DEC-3--------12
TOTAL:----------122
Actually selecting method and round would have scored you more points and probably won you your JFF fight.I just don't see what it proves using dec on all fights.Even if you picked dec on most of them and gave the obvious one's the ko or sub-3 or obvious 1 lock that everyone will use sometimes.
Kumason said:
I don't see how giving every fight decision makes this work.No one using this method will give all decision.Bestfightodds has odds on how each fighter wins..why can't you use those?If the odds don't have ko,sub along with decision odds then use the most often selected method on tapology.I'm sure this has been brought up,i'm sorry I don't read all the threads but it doesn't make sense to do it this way.
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I used decision because I'm trying to take my opinion out of the equation and not have variables. If I start playing around with methods it creates a lot of variables. Decision is the most common method by far (51% of all fights this year before the Japan card), so I went with that.
The suggestion of using the most common method on tapology is a good one. I hadnt thought of that. I also didnt know bestfightodds gave odds for methods as well. I very well might use one or both of those for methods in the future. It eliminates the problem of me putting my opinion anywhere into the picks, and also shows more accurately what an odds-robot would likely score. Good call on those.
Actually, if you take out methods and rounds as scoring options. Taking the favorites and locking them accoriding to the odds would have scored 89 pts out of a possible 114 pts. That score of 89 would have beat all 8 participants involved in the title fight, #1 contenders fight, and contenders fights.
josephdumas said:
Actually, if you take out methods and rounds as scoring options. Taking the favorites and locking them accoriding to the odds would have scored 89 pts out of a possible 114 pts. That score of 89 would have beat all 8 participants involved in the title fight, #1 contenders fight, and contenders fights.
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Ok but methods and rounds count towards scoring. I can't just remove them completely
I'm not telling you how it should be done. Its your test. I'm just making a statement. You can't really expierement with mulitple unkown pieces of info. In this case its methods and rounds. Seeing the favs and odds should be suffienent enough evidence to know if it works to pick all favs and locking them accordingly. In the case of last night vs the top 8 fighters, it would have been. In mathmatical reality, you have a 1/3 chance of hitting the method and round correctly. I would just add 24 to the the score of 89 to assume best fight odds would have scored 113 pts last night.
buffaloblue said:
What hilarious is before NYR or anyone mentioned this I am already looking into a scoring modifyer for new rankings based on beating the standard score which would be similar to what Kumason posted above.
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Speaking of rankings, has anyone fired elfudge yet?
Is there no one active who's able to do rankings?
troubleshooting said:
Speaking of rankings, has anyone fired elfudge yet?
Is there no one active who's able to do rankings?
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They are i access and we dont have the stuff. I am in the process off designing a new ranking system that can be updated as quickly as the JEC ones are.
buffaloblue said:
They are i access and we dont have the stuff. I am in the process off designing a new ranking system that can be updated as quickly as the JEC ones are.
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Curious how draws break down in rankings and more importantly in regards to streaks and contender situations..
For instance, say you're on a 2-3 fight win streak but just miss a contender fight.. then fight to a draw.. Do you reset and have to win another 2-3 matches for another crack?
maggotbrain said:
Curious how draws break down in rankings and more importantly in regards to streaks and contender situations..
For instance, say you're on a 2-3 fight win streak but just miss a contender fight.. then fight to a draw.. Do you reset and have to win another 2-3 matches for another crack?
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You probably have to be coming off a win at a minimum.
I know this is a bash cause yakuza has being doing bestfightodds picks.
But while they are doing that don't tell me they aren't using fantasy fighting strategies when they do pick upsets and with their locks.
People like @joegriz say they don't tailor their picks. Ok well look at his record. It's atrocious. There are strategies to fantasy fighting learn then people.