Politics

Eranys said:
I am in awe of how brazenly they are screwing Pratt. I'm not surprised, just impressed at the balls to do this almost openly.
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All you need is a bare bones statistical analysis to show that this swing is such an outlier it deserves deep scrutiny. Like, if you can do basic addition and division and make a graph, the pattern will jump right off the page.

I can only assume the reason the right doesn't do it is because they run a similar grift when they need to.
 
bconcrete said:
All you need is a bare bones statistical analysis to show that this swing is such an outlier it deserves deep scrutiny. Like, if you can do basic addition and division and make a graph, the pattern will jump right off the page.

I can only assume the reason the right doesn't do it is because they run a similar grift when they need to.
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Yes, it's not so much the part where Pratt is underperforming on the mail-in ballots compared to Bass and Ramen. I understand that Democrats urge their base to use mail-in ballots, and it's going to skew their numbers up a bit.

It's the part where Bass is holding steady at 30-35% on the mail-in... and Ramen went from 20% of the in-person to 40-45% of the mail-in?


We're suppose to believe that the Democrats succeeded in telling their base to utilize mail-in... but, somehow the underdog between the two is kicking the favorites ass on mail-in? How does that part make any sense at all?
 
osubuckeye4 said:
Yes, it's not so much the part where Pratt is underperforming on the mail-in ballots compared to Bass and Ramen. I understand that Democrats urge their base to use mail-in ballots, and it's going to skew their numbers up a bit.

It's the part where Bass is holding steady at 30-35% on the mail-in... and Ramen went from 20% of the in-person to 40-45% of the mail-in?


We're suppose to believe that the Democrats succeeded in telling their base to utilize mail-in... but, somehow the underdog between the two is kicking the favorites ass on mail-in? How does that part make any sense at all?
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DOUBLED from 20-40%.

That's from 1/5 in person, to almost 1/2 of mail in ballots. They're just relying on people's statistical ignorance at this point. Swings like that almost NEVER happen in natural, randomized data (like an election.)

And it only pulling from one side? You simply cannot explain a data shift like that. If a researcher tried to present data like this, their paper would be thrown in the trash and they'd probably be censured.
 
bconcrete said:
DOUBLED from 20-40%.

That's from 1/5 in person, to almost 1/2 of mail in ballots. They're just relying on people's statistical ignorance at this point. Swings like that almost NEVER happen in natural, randomized data (like an election.)

And it only pulling from one side? You simply cannot explain a data shift like that. If a researcher tried to present data like this, their paper would be thrown in the trash and they'd probably be censured.
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And it is not like Pratt has not lapped all of them in social media awareness. OF COURSE people close to him will call foul play. OF COURSE the memes will come out from this. OF COURSE there will be outrage about a candidate whose literal platform is outrage over the democrats incompetence.

And they still have until tomorrow to count votes. I also cannot get decent information out of Google. I cannot find a decent way to get the real counts by day that shows the anomalies. Its crazy.
 
bconcrete said:
DOUBLED from 20-40%.

That's from 1/5 in person, to almost 1/2 of mail in ballots. They're just relying on people's statistical ignorance at this point. Swings like that almost NEVER happen in natural, randomized data (like an election.)

And it only pulling from one side? You simply cannot explain a data shift like that. If a researcher tried to present data like this, their paper would be thrown in the trash and they'd probably be censured.
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Yea, it's not like you had a situation where Bass was 30%, Pratt was 28% and Ramen was 27% heading into election day and Ramen slightly underperformed at the polls, but then made up ground on the mail-in. That would be plausible.

Back in early May it was more like Bass 30%, Pratt 25%, Ramen 19-20%... and then Pratt had an overwhelmingly positive debate performance (even TMZ was getting behind him) and tons of social media momentum while Ramen seemed to stagnate and Democrat voices seemed to say, "you better get behind Bass, lest Pratt wins this thing and gets serious legitimacy going into November".

The polling numbers on election day were pretty closely aligned with prediction models.

The percentage breakdowns in these absurdity late vote counts have been the outliers.
 
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osubuckeye4 said:
Yea, it's not like you had a situation where Bass was 30%, Pratt was 28% and Ramen was 27% heading into election day and Ramen slightly underperformed at the polls, but then made up ground on the mail-in. That would be plausible.

Back in early May it was more like Bass 30%, Pratt 25%, Ramen 19-20%... and then Pratt had an overwhelmingly positive debate performance (even TMZ was getting behind him) and tons of social media momentum while Ramen seemed to stagnate and Democrat voices seemed to say, "you better get behind Bass, lest Pratt wins this thing and gets serious legitimacy going into November".

The polling numbers on election day were pretty closely aligned with prediction models.

The percentage breakdowns in these absurdity late vote counts have been the outliers.
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EXTREME outliers. The type of statistical outliers that if they occurred in a casino would have you in a back room and your name on a blacklist in short order. But don't worry. Ees all normal, nothing weird here whatsoever.
Ulf Murphy said:
And it is not like Pratt has not lapped all of them in social media awareness. OF COURSE people close to him will call foul play. OF COURSE the memes will come out from this. OF COURSE there will be outrage about a candidate whose literal platform is outrage over the democrats incompetence.

And they still have until tomorrow to count votes. I also cannot get decent information out of Google. I cannot find a decent way to get the real counts by day that shows the anomalies. Its crazy.
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And like Ulf mentioned, you can't get any sort of vote counts anywhere.

Because then you could do the basic math and show how far of an outlier this is and we wouldn't want that...
 
bconcrete said:
EXTREME outliers. The type of statistical outliers that if they occurred in a casino would have you in a back room and your name on a blacklist in short order. But don't worry. Ees all normal, nothing weird here whatsoever.

And like Ulf mentioned, you can't get any sort of vote counts anywhere.

Because then you could do the basic math and show how far of an outlier this is and we wouldn't want that...
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hold your horses!

still 32 days left until we will have any idea, goooollleeee

Prior Elections :: California Secretary of State

View information on Prior Elections here.
dp.electionresults.sos.ca.gov dp.electionresults.sos.ca.gov
 
bconcrete said:
All you need is a bare bones statistical analysis to show that this swing is such an outlier it deserves deep scrutiny. Like, if you can do basic addition and division and make a graph, the pattern will jump right off the page.

I can only assume the reason the right doesn't do it is that math level is too high for them.
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bconcrete said:
Those aren't even presented correctly.

If these are accurate, Raman would have seen an 85% increase in votes for her during mail in, while Pratt saw a 32% decline.

As expected, these are beyond statistically anomalous.
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Exactly. Should be stated as a "9 point" drop, not a "9% drop," which as you pointed out dramatically understates the drop.
 
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PrinceVegeta said:

Trump says 'I love the inflation' after consumer price index hits 3-year high​


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huh?

everything is costing a fortune everywhere. labor rates are out of control again. state based regulations are adding to high high costs. we need some help mother fucker.
 
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