Politics

osubuckeye4 said:
Yes, but... it'll likely take years to very slowly make it's way thru various appeals and state level courts.

Even if SCOTUS tries to fast track it, before they can do anything there's going to be injunctions and a case at the state level that will gum it up for many months.


California's best bet to repeal it would be if Hilton won the Governors race and fast tracked a referendum measure... even that'd be 18-24 months though.
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so is this new law enforced until it's overturned or is there a stay on enforcement until the case is heard in Washington?
 
ABB said:
so is this new law enforced until it's overturned or is there a stay on enforcement until the case is heard in Washington?
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It's all a series of "what if's" right now. Anyone saying they know exactly how it will play out is lying.


If it passes (hasn't passed yet.. still needs Senate approval and then Newscum's sign-off), it would go into effect on January 1st of the following year (likely 1/1/27 in this case)

Most likely, between the time it passes and 1/1/27 there will be a ton of lawsuits that will ask the courts for a temporary injunction. If an injunction is granted, the law wouldn't go into effect until the suit asking for the injunction had played out.

The wrinkle to that is that a higher court (Cali Supreme Court?) could overrule the lower court and put a stay on the injunction and allow the law to proceed while the court case (or cases) play out.
 
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ABB said:
I'm not super in the know with the politics game. Does this have the ability to climb to the US Supreme Court? I would think it would get shot down pretty easily. But the CA Supreme Court likely blesses it. this seems like a slam dunk if it goes to Washington
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Yes. First Amendment is Federal. A case wouldn't even be filed in CA Supreme Court, imo.

But it would take years to get there.
 
Ulf Murphy said:
Yes. First Amendment is Federal. A case wouldn't even be filed in CA Supreme Court, imo.

But it would take years to get there.
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Best case is that it doesn't get passed.


If it does pass though... best case scenario would likely be:

- Newsome signs it into law relatively quickly (doesn't wait till November)

- Multiple lawsuits are immediately filed and between that time and 12/31/26 an injunction is granted that prevents the law from going into effect on 1/1/27

- As the process plays out in the courts, Hilton wins the Governorship and spearheads a referendum that will occur during the next general election.

- Referendum passes (would be around18 months after Hilton takes office) and the law is repealed without ever actually taking effect.



It's theoretically possible that a lawsuit against it could get resolved prior to a ballot referendum... but with the amount of attention this one is getting that is very unlikely.
 
My mayor is a terrorist simp and a failed rapper and somehow my state isn't the most dysfunctional in the union.
 
No shit

Canada failing Jewish community as antisemitism becomes national crisis, Carney says

Prime minister announces federal advisory council to combat antisemitism after hate crimes against Jewish Canadians surged to levels not seen since World War II, with attacks targeting schools, synagogues, businesses and campuses

www.ynetnews.com

Canada failing Jewish community as antisemitism becomes national crisis, Carney says

Prime minister announces federal advisory council to combat antisemitism after hate crimes against Jewish Canadians surged to levels not seen since World War II, with attacks targeting schools, synagogues, businesses and campuses
www.ynetnews.com www.ynetnews.com
 
osubuckeye4 said:
It's all a series of "what if's" right now. Anyone saying they know exactly how it will play out is lying.


If it passes (hasn't passed yet.. still needs Senate approval and then Newscum's sign-off), it would go into effect on January 1st of the following year (likely 1/1/27 in this case)

Most likely, between the time it passes and 1/1/27 there will be a ton of lawsuits that will ask the courts for a temporary injunction. If an injunction is granted, the law wouldn't go into effect until the suit asking for the injunction had played out.

The wrinkle to that is that a higher court (Cali Supreme Court?) could overrule the lower court and put a stay on the injunction and allow the law to proceed while the court case (or cases) play out.
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oh it'll clear the state senate, clear Gavin, and clear the state SC. what's the trick to getting it to Washington before 1/1/27?
 
osubuckeye4 said:
Best case is that it doesn't get passed.


If it does pass though... best case scenario would likely be:

- Newsome signs it into law relatively quickly (doesn't wait till November)

- Multiple lawsuits are immediately filed and between that time and 12/31/26 an injunction is granted that prevents the law from going into effect on 1/1/27

- As the process plays out in the courts, Hilton wins the Governorship and spearheads a referendum that will occur during the next general election.

- Referendum passes (would be around18 months after Hilton takes office) and the law is repealed without ever actually taking effect.



It's theoretically possible that a lawsuit against it could get resolved prior to a ballot referendum... but with the amount of attention this one is getting that is very unlikely.
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You should take this to Kalshi and make some $$$$ on this! That would be an all-time 4-leg parlay!
 
cmvideo75 said:
You should take this to Kalshi and make some $$$$ on this! That would be an all-time 4-leg parlay!
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The odds on either one of:

- Hilton winning Governor
- The people of California voting in favor of a referendum that benefits them

are very low.
 
osubuckeye4 said:
The odds on either one of:

- Hilton winning Governor
- The people of California voting in favor of a referendum that benefits them

are very low.
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every time you think someone other than a hard left dem has a shot, it doesn't happen. I think Arnold was the last time
 
ABB said:
every time you think someone other than a hard left dem has a shot, it doesn't happen. I think Arnold was the last time
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Pratt has a much better shot to win LA than Hilton has at Governor of California.

Pratt has been smart to keep Trump and the GOP at arms length during his campaign.
 
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