Schaub VS. Nelson

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: MMAMoneyLine
Date: December 03, 2009 at 11:25 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

Pretty surprised to see Brendan Schaub coming out that big of an underdog. Right now, BetUS has him at +220.
I like Schaub a lot here...looks like he has the physical and mental tools to beat Nelson: purple belt in BJJ and Golden Gloves level boxing along with a proper training camp in New Mexico w/ Greg Jackson & Colorado w/ Shane Carwin.
Nelson hasn't done much to impress me....beating up on two guys that don't have a ground game and barely getting by Wren. I'm not discounting his experience and skill, but the "what have you done for me lately" factor is definitely low on Roy. Everyone who fought Nelson on the show has tagged him.
Thoughts?

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: zY
Date: December 03, 2009 at 11:30 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

Everyone who fought Roy has tagged him, yet he's still won.
By that same token, everyone who's fought Brendan has taken him down, EASILY.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: ozzman
Date: December 03, 2009 at 11:30 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

I think the fights on the show are a poor gauge of how anyone will perform in a proper bout.
While on the show, the fighters lack the benefit of a proper camp. They don't know who and when they will be fighting, and don't have the coaches they are used to having. I'm not sure when taping ended, but I think they would have had at least a couple months to prepare for this bout.
Nelson has tons of experience, and has looked good even in his losses. I don't know much about Schaub. I think the line is fair the way it is.
I put a small play on Nelson myself.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: December 04, 2009 at 12:15 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

Roy Nelson will dominate. Brendan Schaub is not on his grappling level.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: December 04, 2009 at 12:28 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

A major fact that I think UFC/Spike TV did a great job concealing is that
Roy Nelson is a BJJ black belt under Renzo Gracie
. He beat Frank Mir in a grappling match: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dj5xMeXybs
He's got serious ground skills along with the blubber. He outclassed many of the TUF fighters on the ground. Nelson also moves amazingly fast on the feet for a heavyweight, and his handspeed is pretty good too.
HAVING SAID THAT (whattup Larry David), I thought Schaub over +150 had some value, and over +200 definitely warranted a play IMO. I expect Nelson to have serious issues with Schaub's 5.5 inch reach advantage. He is not quick enough to jump in and out of range for 3 rounds.
zY said:
Everyone who fought Roy has tagged him, yet he's still won.
By that same token, everyone who's fought Brendan has taken him down, EASILY.
Click to expand...
This is true. In Schaub's defense, Rogers and Madsen are takedown machines. Big Baby is incredibly strong. Nelson definitely poses less of a takedown threat than those 3.
I'd also say Schaub has more KO power than Wren, Sweeney, and Kimbo (Kimbo is a KO threat to Alexander's glass chin).

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: PredictionPain
Date: December 04, 2009 at 02:17 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

sorry GCAD, I have to disagree with you here. ScHAub
@ +200 does not warrant abplay by anymeans
as mentioned, schaubs td defense is atrocious. None
of those ppl who put him on the mat really knew what's up
Roy won alot of sub grappling matches via positional dominace as seenvs Mir
Roy will put schaub on his back at will and he won't
escape so easily as seen vs others. He'll pound him out AfterRoy
has gotten in position to finnish. He has a solid jab that should
nullify the striking advantage ( if any ) of schaub. rampage claims belly ,
but it'll be grappling technique from another level that prevent schaub from standing
My biggest fear is that Roy could get cocky and not play to
his strengths. In the assumption Roy has the proper gameplan
and his head is in the right place, Id say he's good to -400
of course he could sherk/gurgel it, I think he's a great play at the current line
Wow, longest drunk iPhone post ever.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: PredictionPain
Date: December 04, 2009 at 02:28 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

Oh, and as for roys td abilities compared to
schaubs previous opponents, his trips from
double unders are superb. yes those others have
more brute-force-ish TDs, but to think Roy
will have trouble taking schaub down is silly
man, I'll be eating crow if schaub pulls it off. I feel
weird going big on Roy since all TUF favorites have
failed short lately, and I've done great on the dogs. Hopefully Not this time
ugh, if Roy goes full on gurgel :evil:

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: CoconutCenter
Date: December 04, 2009 at 04:21 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

Schaub is a terrible bet IMO. Maybe at +300 or higher you could consider but he's not on Roy's level for a lot of reason. Look at who they've faught. Roy is a great bet at this line. It'll be a takedown, ground and pound, then stoppage or submission.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: PredictionPain
Date: December 04, 2009 at 09:35 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

to summarize my late night post-concert drunken post
-schaub's TD defense has looked bad,
- has he shown the ability to regain half guard/guard from bad positions? yes
- did any of those opponent have a fraction of the ground game roy works with? no
roy has a fantastic base and will control schaub's hips like none of the others. Marcus Jones gave Schaub way too much space on the ground in that fight so i do discredit his escape abilities, it was an amateur jitz mistake, but he opted to be more agressive w/ his fists and opened an escape hatch for schaub. roy will pretty much do the opposite, work, work, work for position, and then attempt a finish. I should go back and watch the other shcaub fights to completely assure myself of it, but whoever was ontop of Schaub showed an atrocious top game and schaub was able to capitalize on on their mistakes in good fashion.
roy's cockyness and showmanship is my main fear. This is his first fight on the big stage (sorry elite ex: heat). Maybe he'll think he could win this with his standup (which he could, just an awful strategy when there's the mat). Maybe he'll try to go for crucifix #3, try to make that his M.O. in the UFC, etc, etc.
Schaub clipping Roy is the only way I can see Nelson losing, and I think Roy's standup is good enough to hang with Schaub.
i put 4.8u on nelson @ -240

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: December 04, 2009 at 10:41 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

For the record, I never said Schaub isn't going to get taken down. I acknowledged that Nelson has a clear advantage on the ground.
I still stand my opinion that at more than 2-1 odds I like a small play on Schaub (+235 is where I got him). Nelson has had some tough fights and has an impressive resume, but looking specifically at the Nelson vs Schaub match-up...Schaub's reach and success with quick straight punching presents a problem for Nelson. Nelson does have a good jab but it's going to be tough for him to have consistent success punching upward and making up 5.5 inches in reach differential.
Nelson doesn't have the wrestling takedown skills and can't provide the "on you like glue" clinching pressure consistently to guarantee that Schaub will spend the majority of this fight on his back. Schaub is unproven but he is a very strong and athletic prospect and I can see him winning this on the feet. Good chance of a TKO and small chance of a decision win warrants an above +200 play IMO.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: PredictionPain
Date: December 04, 2009 at 11:29 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

GuidaClayAllDay said:
For the record, I never said Schaub isn't going to get taken down. I acknowledged that Nelson has a clear advantage on the ground.
//
Nelson doesn't have the wrestling takedown skills and can't provide the "on you like glue" clinching pressure consistently to guarantee that Schaub will spend the majority of this fight on his back.
Click to expand...
A) never said you did, if i implied it, apologies
B) disagree. Roy doesn't have any explosive shots for TDs like the rest who put Schaub down, but he's should be able to beat Schaub in the battle for over/unders. His bodylock -> trip is effective, and (i
think
it was roy vs mcsweeny, not positive) his single leg -> ankle pick was impressive. His TD stylings would be the antithesis of someone say ... velasquez. he'll never maker you think "wrestler", but they get the job done.
another thing that could work against roy is his methodical style of grappling. If schaub holds his own against the cage, they will be broken up. Maybe this is just ingrained in my head after the bad standup vs AA, but Schaub defending himself in the over/under battle is really one of his keys to victory.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: PredictionPain
Date: December 04, 2009 at 11:36 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

yes those others have
more brute-force-ish TDs,
but to think Roy
will have trouble taking schaub down is silly
Click to expand...
there's where i implied it

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: December 04, 2009 at 12:37 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

lol...drunk analysis is the best analysis.
You made valid points and I can understand why you're betting on Nelson.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: PredictionPain
Date: December 04, 2009 at 03:13 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

drunk analysis - ok
drunk betting - :|
Roy is -205 now ... but I have to admit, I thought the line would go in the opposite direction ::: sigh :::
probably 1u more
.... getting worried about money coming in on schaub though, that's a pretty big jump in roy's line and i've checked a few times today, it happened faaaaasssst

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: osubuckeye4
Date: December 04, 2009 at 03:23 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

I got Schaub at +215 and I'm happy with that line.
Reasons I like Schaub are pretty simple... he's fighting with Greg Jackson's camp, he has had a full fight camp to prepare, he has a huge reach advantage, he's shown crisp striking, and he's shown that he's able to survive on the bottom when he's taken down by large people and very good wrestlers. Schaub is also going to progress a lot more with a full fight camp then Nelson is (who basically comes out with the same gameplan for every fight)
Yes, Nelson is better on the ground then anyone Schaub faced on TUF and yes, Roy is deceptively quick and has nice striking skills.
Roy could very well put Schaub away if he uses his striking to get to the clinch, takes that to the trip then gets on top of him (like he did everyone but Wren during TUF). I just really think Schaub with a full fight camp's preperation is going to be ready to defend the takedowns.
If this line was even, I'd like Roy. Being at +215 though, I think Schaub presents very nice value.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: PredictionPain
Date: December 04, 2009 at 06:03 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

watched all of schaub & nelson's TUF fights, and a few others outside, monson, AA, IFL, & the few i could find of schaub. I dunno why I feel like I'm the biggest roy gambling apologist, but with schaub becoming less of a dog, I just don't get it.
-
Correction
. A few posts above, the Single->Ankle Pick by Nelson on McSweeny should be Single ->Knee Tap by McSweeny on Mitrione
- Schaub's ground skills are horrible, flat out. Did he stay cool under pressure? No, not at all. Numerous fencegrabs all around, 1 that prevented a takedown in the madson fight. D.Rodgers looks terrible and like he's been doing this for less than a year ... he made an absurdly horrible pass from guard to side and Schaub couldn't capitalize (Rodgers did the same pass which was when Schaub got up, right before the choke). Marcus Jones made it look easy on Schaub with position advancement. Both of their technique is extremely flawed but they managed to look good. Madson was the best w/ takedowns, but he didn't even make an attempt to go out of half guard. He should've tried, he probably could've moved to mount w/in a minute. Schaub's TD defense is atrocious and this should be a CLINIC put on by Nelson. As for striking ... I still give Roy the edge. I'll admit to Schaub having more KO power, but that's about it.
@OSU i DO believe the greg jackson camp could play a factor as roy seems like a fighter of predictability and maybe they attempt to plan around it, but there's only so much they can do. nelson's fights are all around, i'm sure schaub/jackson has seen each 10x.
Yes, these are the TUF fights and they shouldn't be the be-all-end-all but it's clear that schaub is not on nelson's level. At no point in his TUF fights did Schaub look dominant, and it was against piss poor competition. Dana shouldve droped his "not impressed by nelson" facade since roy never looked in trouble throughout the fights. And I do believe he fought the 2nd best fighter in that house (Wren)
Unless Schaub clips Nelson before it hits the matt, this is Big County's to lose.
1u more @ -205 ... waiting to see where this goes, but looking put more money on roy.
this'll be my biggest wager since Maynard (-235) vs Huerta. I hope I don't come back to this thread with egg on my face

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: MikeyHatTrick
Date: December 04, 2009 at 06:30 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

I got 5u on Nelson at -180 at Betonline

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: marctheshark
Date: December 04, 2009 at 09:48 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

MikeyHatTrick said:
I got 5u on Nelson at -180 at Betonline
Click to expand...
That's a great line. Good luck!

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: MikeyHatTrick
Date: December 04, 2009 at 10:30 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

marctheshark said:
MikeyHatTrick said:
I got 5u on Nelson at -180 at Betonline
Click to expand...
That's a great line. Good luck!
Click to expand...
i was actually checking on Schaub when i did it
but when I saw the 180 i couldnt pass it up
also 1u is a dollar to me

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: MoDogg
Date: December 05, 2009 at 12:28 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/schaub-vs-nelson.19981/

PredictionPain said:
watched all of schaub & nelson's TUF fights, and a few others outside, monson, AA, IFL, & the few i could find of schaub. I dunno why I feel like I'm the biggest roy gambling apologist, but with schaub becoming less of a dog, I just don't get it.
-
Correction
. A few posts above, the Single->Ankle Pick by Nelson on McSweeny should be Single ->Knee Tap by McSweeny on Mitrione
- Schaub's ground skills are horrible, flat out. Did he stay cool under pressure? No, not at all. Numerous fencegrabs all around, 1 that prevented a takedown in the madson fight. D.Rodgers looks terrible and like he's been doing this for less than a year ... he made an absurdly horrible pass from guard to side and Schaub couldn't capitalize (Rodgers did the same pass which was when Schaub got up, right before the choke). Marcus Jones made it look easy on Schaub with position advancement. Both of their technique is extremely flawed but they managed to look good. Madson was the best w/ takedowns, but he didn't even make an attempt to go out of half guard. He should've tried, he probably could've moved to mount w/in a minute. Schaub's TD defense is atrocious and this should be a CLINIC put on by Nelson. As for striking ... I still give Roy the edge. I'll admit to Schaub having more KO power, but that's about it.
@OSU i DO believe the greg jackson camp could play a factor as roy seems like a fighter of predictability and maybe they attempt to plan around it, but there's only so much they can do. nelson's fights are all around, i'm sure schaub/jackson has seen each 10x.
Yes, these are the TUF fights and they shouldn't be the be-all-end-all but it's clear that schaub is not on nelson's level. At no point in his TUF fights did Schaub look dominant, and it was against piss poor competition. Dana shouldve droped his "not impressed by nelson" facade since roy never looked in trouble throughout the fights. And I do believe he fought the 2nd best fighter in that house (Wren)
Unless Schaub clips Nelson before it hits the matt, this is Big County's to lose.
1u more @ -205 ... waiting to see where this goes, but looking put more money on roy.
this'll be my biggest wager since Maynard (-235) vs Huerta. I hope I don't come back to this thread with egg on my face
Click to expand...
I think it is never that safe to go that heavy on these TUF finales. I do think getting Roy at -200/205 or under is good value, but with Schaub training with Jackson's camp, not only does he have the help from training with that camp for this fight, but you have to consider Jackson and the rest of the coaches were able to work with Roy for 6 weeks and see him train practically everyday. I would think they have a very good gameplan for him, and should execute it. Same reason why i will play a little on McSweeney over Schoonover. Now I do agree that this is not the end all, be all, and Jackson and his camp are not in the octagon for the fighters, but I do think it gives a potentially significant advantage.