Shark Fights 13
- Thread starter Nastycrow
- Start date
Re: Shine Fights 13 (Apparently It's Happening)
Had to put a small bet on Alexander at those odds, just for fun. Took Saffiedine for a unit. Jardine has great TDD, but I wonder if theres a touch of value on Prangley simply on the basis of possible cheese. Not gonna bet on it.
Re: Shine Fights 13 (Apparently It's Happening)
fightfightfight said:
Had to put a small bet on Alexander at those odds, just for fun. Took Saffiedine for a unit. Jardine has great TDD, but I wonder if theres a touch of value on Prangley simply on the basis of possible cheese. Not gonna bet on it.
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I could see a small play on Alexander. He shouldn't be undersized or worried about the takedowns, which tends to work with his stand-and-bang style.
besides his ability to gain top position on TDs, even those attempted by his opponent, I don't consider Soko a great MMA grappler. I always wondered where his judo skills were, and they shined vs mousasi despite the loss. Really not sure if he'll go for TDs, Soko likes to stand. Alexander's fight against Kimbo might be enough to convince someone he's not a huge threat on the feet
I wouldn't put a penny on Houston. Soko will get it to the ground and will destroy him there. Sure, he may want to stand and bang for a minute... but he'll even be much quicker on the feet.
I actually really like Soko at anything better than -450 here. If anything on a single play, I'd rather gamble w Prangley at +200. Jardine's style will give him problems, but his chin makes guys look like KO artists that aren't. Even though Trevor only has about an 18% (T)KO win percentage, I think he can win this by putting pressure on Jardine and getting a flurry TKO. I think the only play I'm making here is a parlay on Soko and Daley.
warlock said:
I wouldn't put a penny on Houston. Soko will get it to the ground and will destroy him there. Sure, he may want to stand and bang for a minute... but he'll even be much quicker on the feet.
I actually really like Soko at anything better than -450 here. If anything on a single play, I'd rather gamble w Prangley at +200. Jardine's style will give him problems, but his chin makes guys look like KO artists that aren't. Even though Trevor only has about an 18% (T)KO win percentage, I think he can win this by putting pressure on Jardine and getting a flurry TKO. I think the only play I'm making here is a parlay on Soko and Daley.
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I agree with that Soko should be able to judo trip Houston, land in top control, and work the GnP. I wouldn't have a lot of faith in Houston's ability to get it back to its feet if that happened.
I tend to disagree with the comment about Jardine's chin making guys look like KO artists who aren't. Other than Ryan Bader everyone that's KO'd Jardine recently (Houston, Thiago, Wanderlei) wins by KO/TKO 60 % of the time they win. Bader is still over 40%. Jackson and Hamill both have good KO power and Jardine held them to a decision. Prangley on the other hand is well rounded but he is probably better suited at middleweight than LHW and he isn't really known for knocking people out. His bread and butter is his wrestling and an equal amount of his wins come via submission and dec wins (9 each). Jardine is a pretty bad style match up Prangley, I think. He has good TDD and has never been submitted in his pro career. I think Jardine has the skill set to turn this into a point striking match, witch is his strong suit.
It's hard to look at Jardine, who really hasn't turned in a dominant performance sine 2006 and has done nothing but lose lately, and think he should be the favorite... but styles make fights and I think Jardines style will probably give Prangley lots of problems and the guys Jardine's lost too are general high calibre comp. I'd think Jardine should be favored to win 65-70% of the time here, which is hard for me to type since I've done nothing but bet against him recently. I didn't check BFO this morning... and I'm wishing I did, but I tend to remeber Jardine being in the -200s from a day or two ago, which seems about right.
Great night in Bellator last night so lets keep the ball rolling into MFC and Shark Fights. Am I the only one looking at the Semtex fight as a possible upset? We know this guys ground game is next to nothing. I'm also looking into a few others. Thoughts on the Semtex fight?
Black92Si said:
Great night in Bellator last night so lets keep the ball rolling into MFC and Shark Fights. Am I the only one looking at the Semtex fight as a possible upset? We know this guys ground game is next to nothing. I'm also looking into a few others. Thoughts on the Semtex fight?
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Jorge Masvidal is not a ground fighter though. He's primarily a boxer who likes to stand and bang with 50% of his wins coming via KO/TKO and most of the rest coming via decision. He has 1 submission victory so I doubt Semtex is sweating going to the ground. Jorge has a few wins over name opponents but his biggest claim to faim is probably being on the receiving end of Toby Imada's inverted triangle in Bellator 5. This should primarily be a boxing match. Masvidal mainly fights at LW though and this looks to be his first fight at WW. Daley is more of a natural WW and should have the strength advantage. I certainly won't be betting against Daley in a boxing match where he's the bigger guy.
schmacko said:
Jorge Masvidal is not a ground fighter though. He's primarily a boxer who likes to stand and bang with 50% of his wins coming via KO/TKO and most of the rest coming via decision. He has 1 submission victory so I doubt Semtex is sweating going to the ground. Jorge has a few wins over name opponents but his biggest claim to faim is probably being on the receiving end of Toby Imada's inverted triangle in Bellator 5. This should primarily be a boxing match.
Masvidal mainly fights at LW though and this looks to be his first fight at WW.
Daley is more of a natural WW and should have the strength advantage. I certainly won't be betting against Daley in a boxing match where he's the bigger guy.
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As of yesterday Paul Daley is weighing around 183lbs. Masividal walks around around 170-174lbs. From a skillset standpoint, I actually was going to throw .75u to a full unit on Masividal. But with the LW vs WW factor, I'm afraid we are going to have a Zaromskis/Evangelista Santos situation. I still am looking to make a play on Masividal but it will be small.
Daley has good TDD too. Sure, Kos and Shields can take him down, but he actually impressed me with the trouble he gave Koscheck. If This guy is a LW coming to WW, I dont see this as anything but a standup fight, which Daley should rule.
I keep thinking I should lay down on Jardine. He was tearing apart Hamill until the eyepoke, hes got great TDD, and if Prangley is smaller, I dont see this going to the ground. I'd be more worried about a Prangley KO, but I dont think Jardine has quite as bad a chin as they say. -200 at Bodog is very tempting. Quick, talk me out of it.
I would never bet on Jardine as a fave against anyone that has KO power. Maybe as a dog but that's it. He might win tonight but over the long run I think this is a losing proposition. I still can't believe he went the distance with Rampage and Chuck.
I have Saffiedine .56u/1u @ +180.
Saffiedine is one of the brightest prospects at 170 IMO and I think this is a great fight to guage where he is at in his development. Was impressed with what I saw in his last 4 fights. His loss vs Dong Sik Yoon is a little misleading; seems to me he took that fight on short notice.