So your saying there is a chance.....

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: monteaz
Date: April 03, 2010 at 11:44 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/so-your-saying-there-is-a-chance.24102/

That I hit my 6 way parlay? 5 down, 1 to go! I really had the first 5 fights as close to locks as you can get in MMA,
especially the bets on Kenflo, Bones, and Roy.......I think Rashad beats Rampage to complete it for me, Rashad is
hungrier, works harder, and is closer to his prime than Rampage. Rampage does not want to be a fighter anymore.
I really like Rashad at + anything in this fight.
6 Team Parlay
(1512) Jon Jones -260 Sun@8:00p
Competitor
1513) Brandon "The Truth" Vera
(1580) Ricardo "Cachorrao" Almeida -125 Sat@4:30p
Competitor
1581) Matt "The Immortal" Brown
(1591) Gleison Tibau -140 Wed@4:00p
Competitor
1590) Caol "Uno Shoten" Uno
(1584) Kenny "KenFlo" Florian -275 Wed@7:10p
Competitor
1585) Takanori "The Fireball Kid" Gomi
(1586) Roy "Big Country" Nelson -340 Wed@7:10p
Competitor
1587) Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve
(1607) Rashad "Sugar" Evans +105 May 29/10@8:55p
Competitor
1606) Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
Risk US$ 37.22 to win US$ 538.07

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: zY
Date: April 03, 2010 at 02:07 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/so-your-saying-there-is-a-chance.24102/

Good luck.
Rashad beating Rampage isn't far fetched if the Rampage of late shows up. If the Rampage that beat Dan Henderson arrives, I'd be pretty nervous.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Chris_B
Date: April 03, 2010 at 02:21 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/so-your-saying-there-is-a-chance.24102/

Another good parlay...
You can arb out right now if you choose... If you put a bet of $335.59 on Rampage at -140 (Bodog) then you win $202.48 no matter who wins.
So if Rashad wins you make 538.07 - 335.59 = 202.48
If Rampage wins you make -37.22 + 335.59/1.4 = 202.48
So if you get nervous you are still guaranteed over $200 if you want to opt out (barring a draw)... It is a 50/50 fight after all, you could just as easily lose all that as make it...
I wish was in your shoes.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Machinehead
Date: April 03, 2010 at 03:46 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/so-your-saying-there-is-a-chance.24102/

Chris_B said:
Another good parlay...
You can arb out right now if you choose... If you put a bet of $335.59 on Rampage at -140 (Bodog) then you win $202.48 no matter who wins.
So if Rashad wins you make 538.07 - 335.59 = 202.48
If Rampage wins you make -37.22 + 335.59/1.4 = 202.48
So if you get nervous you are still guaranteed over $200 if you want to opt out (barring a draw)... It is a 50/50 fight after all, you could just as easily lose all that as make it...
I wish was in your shoes.
Click to expand...
This is excellent advice and I think you should take it. Mostly because I think there's a very good chance Rashad is going to get pasted by Rampage.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Offthebooks
Date: April 03, 2010 at 03:54 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/so-your-saying-there-is-a-chance.24102/

Good luck man I think we are both in the same shoes check out my link.
http://forums.mmajunkie.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=24069

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: April 03, 2010 at 05:08 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/so-your-saying-there-is-a-chance.24102/

Chris_B said:
Another good parlay...
You can arb out right now if you choose... If you put a bet of $335.59 on Rampage at -140 (Bodog) then you win $202.48 no matter who wins.
So if Rashad wins you make 538.07 - 335.59 = 202.48
If Rampage wins you make -37.22 + 335.59/1.4 = 202.48
So if you get nervous you are still guaranteed over $200 if you want to opt out (barring a draw)... It is a 50/50 fight after all, you could just as easily lose all that as make it...
I wish was in your shoes.
Click to expand...
From a guaranteed profit standpoint, this is great advice if you are having second thoughts about Rashad winning. Otherwise it is more profitable to not include the questionable legs of a parlay to begin with, comparing to hedging the those questionable legs.
Right now you stand risking
37.22 to win $538.07
. If you decide to hedge the last leg with a Rampage bet, you stand to win
$202.48
.
But if you had decided to not even to include Rashad in the parlay in the first place, you would have won
$243.41
, which is a 20% increase in profit.
There's always good reasons to hedge out if new circumstances surrounding the bets come into effect (injuries, rumors about training camp, etc.), but if you believe that last leg of the bet is +EV, and you still think it is as the fight date approaches, you should stick with it.
That being said, I am leaning towards Rampage at this time.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: monteaz
Date: April 03, 2010 at 06:23 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/so-your-saying-there-is-a-chance.24102/

I bet MMA fights to gamble. This is not an investment, nor is it money that I depend on to live. That being said, I like Rashad to win, so I'm going to gamble it up......That being said I am wayyy up betting on mma, probably due to positive variance more than anything, even though I feel like I've made good picks, for the most part.
If I do win, I am thinking about betting like 1/4 of my gambling on mma fight role on fights that I think are locks....similar to the Kenflo, Bones, and Roy fights.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: April 03, 2010 at 11:11 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/so-your-saying-there-is-a-chance.24102/

Chris_B said:
Another good parlay...
You can arb out right now if you choose... If you put a bet of $335.59 on Rampage at -140 (Bodog) then you win $202.48 no matter who wins.
So if Rashad wins you make 538.07 - 335.59 = 202.48
If Rampage wins you make -37.22 + 335.59/1.4 = 202.48
So if you get nervous you are still guaranteed over $200 if you want to opt out (barring a draw)... It is a 50/50 fight after all, you could just as easily lose all that as make it...
I wish was in your shoes.
Click to expand...
Take this advice, arb out. I really don't like Rashad against Rampage. Even if you do, you have to admit its a high variance fight, especially when you can get paid now and not have to worry about who wins. Rashad's stand up is way over-rated to me. He is very quick, very. But Thiago took it well. I think Thiago proved that if he was 100% he wins that fight, probably wins it going away. To me the LHW division looks like this: Machida, Shogun, Jon Jones and then the rest of the pack, with Thiago Silva and Rampage on top to the the pack
This is a no brainer really

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: CoconutCenter
Date: April 05, 2010 at 02:29 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/so-your-saying-there-is-a-chance.24102/

If you think rashad will win, stick with it!!! I've arb'd out a few times and all but once screwed me out of profit. Then again, they were all big favs so ur situation is a little different on a coin flip. Good luck!