Strikeforce: Le vs Smith

Nastycrow

Nastycrow

Mr. BlobTitz
Staff member
Originally posted by: SPX
Date: December 14, 2009 at 12:59 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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Thoughts on this one?
Depending on the odds, I'm liking Le, Jacare, and Melendez.
My thinking is that Le is going to be too technical for Smith. Scott Smith's one path to victory is always to get his *** kicked for a while and then land a huge shot which puts his opponents out. I think Le will probably be able to avoid that while tagging him with punches and kicks that earn him a decision. The way I see it is that he'll just stay on the outside and score points.
Melendez has been looking like a monster in his past several fights. Ishida had nothing for him. I know Thompson beat him the first time around, but I think Gil has probably improved since then. At underdog odds, I think he's worth a play.
As for Jacare/Lindland, to be honest I have never once seen Jacare fight, but I hear from a lot of people that he should take this one.
 
Originally posted by: ZedzDead
Date: December 14, 2009 at 01:46 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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I'm curious to see what the lines will be for jacare vs lindland. Neither has impressive standup, lindland should have no problem keeping jacare on his back for three rounds, but can he do it without getting subbed... If I can get linland at decent odds I may make a play on him.
I find for the most part strikeforce cards are completly predictable and I've made more money on them than ufc cards although Thompson vs melendez is a tough one to call, for me at least.
 
Originally posted by: SPX
Date: December 14, 2009 at 01:53 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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ZedzDead said:
I'm curious to see what the lines will be for jacare vs lindland. Neither has impressive standup, lindland should have no problem keeping jacare on his back for three rounds, but can he do it without getting subbed... If I can get linland at decent odds I may make a play on him.
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Interesting you say that. Like I said, I have not personally seen Jacare fight but here's what a friend of mine from another forum had to say on the matter:
"There is 0% chance that Linland can control Jacare on the ground. He is super explosive and the very best grappler in all of MMA right now. He also has solid takedowns for a bjj guy, and was known on the bjj circuit for his takedowns. I like wrestling, but world champion bjj guys eat olympic wrestlers for lunch on the mat."
 
Originally posted by: omalley21
Date: December 14, 2009 at 02:45 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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Lindland has no chance in that fight.
 
Originally posted by: PredictionPain
Date: December 14, 2009 at 03:37 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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SPX said:
ZedzDead said:
I'm curious to see what the lines will be for jacare vs lindland. Neither has impressive standup, lindland should have no problem keeping jacare on his back for three rounds, but can he do it without getting subbed... If I can get linland at decent odds I may make a play on him.
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Interesting you say that. Like I said, I have not personally seen Jacare fight but here's what a friend of mine from another forum had to say on the matter:
"There is 0% chance that Linland can control Jacare on the ground. He is super explosive and the very best grappler in all of MMA right now. He also has solid takedowns for a bjj guy, and was known on the bjj circuit for his takedowns. I like wrestling, but world champion bjj guys eat olympic wrestlers for lunch on the mat."
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Agree^^ It doesn't matter how stifling your top game can be, you do not want Jacare on the mat. Bottom line.
Jacare's TDs from sub grappling matches are damn impressive but keep in mind, they're sub grappling matches. he's gonna be in a cage w/ a super accredited greco roman wrestler who's gameplan should be doing everything in his willpower to keep this fight standing. A much tougher task, but nothing Jacare can't do.
I really think Lindland has to put him away with his fists or this is Jacare's by sub or decision. I was thinking, "Maybe Lindland can stuff enough TDs, win the exchange on the feet, and get a decision", but the more i think about it, the more I think that's super unlikely.
another thing of note, the only person to take Jacare to a decision is Mayhem, Jacare has won by submission in all other fights (and quickly). Mayhem has insane sub defense, maybe Lindland's is on par, but certainly no better.
 
Originally posted by: ZedzDead
Date: December 14, 2009 at 04:06 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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Jacare does have good takedowns but lindlands wrestling is just on another level, I would be astounded if jacare was able to put lindland on his back. Jacare has fought very weak competition in comparison to lindland, he was unable to submit mayhem, is lindlands sub defense as good as mayhems... Probably not but it's close, he has 2 sub losses one to fedor who is several weight classes above him and one to bustamante years ago. He has fought and beat bjj guys like almeida newton and lutter, who are not as good on the ground as jacare but are no slouches either.
In my opinion this fight will take place wherever lindland decides it will. If it does go to the ground jacare will have to look for subs and sweeps off his back, which some bjj guys don't mind, but if he doesn't catch one he will probably lose a decision.
Anyways I don't think either fighter has a significant edge but if the line was right those are the reasons I like lindland.
 
Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: December 14, 2009 at 08:19 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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Haven't watched any tape for this one yet but the question for me is does Linland still have that kind of wrestling. I'm not sure his game is what it once was. With Jacare that certainly isn't the case, he hasn't even reached his prime yet. If its close to even or Jacare a slight favorite, I could see a 3 or 4u bet on Jacare just calling it without watching recent tape.
SPX I ag4ree with your buddy, legit world champion BJJ guys eat olpymic wrestlers for lunch
 
Originally posted by: bdmcleod
Date: December 15, 2009 at 03:34 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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Randy's wrestling did an admirable job against Brock. A takedown machine. And he's been out of pure wrestling training longer than Lindland.
Henderson is still very very difficult to get down and he was an olympian in greco-roman.
So I don't really think rustiness is going to let Jacare takedown a Greco-Roman Olympic silver medalist.
Rousamir Palhares lost to Henderson.
Vinny Malgahaes lost to Ryan Bader. (not to mention 4-4 to go along with his 3rd at adcc)
Vitor lost to Tito, henderson, and Randy. (3rd at adcc)
Jeff Monson lost to a catch wrestler. ADCC champ
Dean Lister lost to Yushin Okami. Who isn't near olympic caliber and Lister was an ADCC absolute champ.
Nog lost to Henderson(and Henderson lost to Nog).
Bustamante(Mundials champ) has been beaten by Rampage, Henderson, and Chuck.
So Henderson who is probably most similar to Lindland has done well against the very best BJJ'ers.
So no. It's not as easy as BJJ world champs own all wrestlers. Royce Gracie thought the same thing and proceeded to get his arm nearly broken, and the only reason it wasn't was because Hughes didn't want to.
 
Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: December 15, 2009 at 04:02 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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bdmcleod said:
Randy's wrestling did an admirable job against Brock. A takedown machine. And he's been out of pure wrestling training longer than Lindland.
Henderson is still very very difficult to get down and he was an olympian in greco-roman.
So I don't really think rustiness is going to let Jacare takedown a Greco-Roman Olympic silver medalist.
Rousamir Palhares lost to Henderson.
Vinny Malgahaes lost to Ryan Bader. (not to mention 4-4 to go along with his 3rd at adcc)
Vitor lost to Tito, henderson, and Randy. (3rd at adcc)
Jeff Monson lost to a catch wrestler. ADCC champ
Dean Lister lost to Yushin Okami. Who isn't near olympic caliber and Lister was an ADCC absolute champ.
Nog lost to Henderson(and Henderson lost to Nog).
Bustamante(Mundials champ) has been beaten by Rampage, Henderson, and Chuck.
So Henderson who is probably most similar to Lindland has done well against the very best BJJ'ers.
So no. It's not as easy as BJJ world champs own all wrestlers. Royce Gracie thought the same thing and proceeded to get his arm nearly broken, and the only reason it wasn't was because Hughes didn't want to.
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wow never seen THIS kind of MMAth, couldn't disagree more. thought you were being facetious at 1st. you need to go watch lindland vs werdum.
 
Originally posted by: marctheshark
Date: December 15, 2009 at 04:26 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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Jacare takes this. Younger, faster, more athletic, and the top BJJ practitioner in MMA. Regarded as maybe the best P4P BJJ practitioner in the world. Lindland is well past his prime. When you watch Jacare fight, it's obvious that his skill set makes him unique. Once saw him do his alligator walk and the biting thing with his arms after a victory in a place where the Florida Gators had just defeated the local city's university(not sure where it was). The fans took it as an insult and were booing him mercilessly. Great stuff!
 
Originally posted by: bdmcleod
Date: December 15, 2009 at 04:34 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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UKdonkbet said:
bdmcleod said:
Randy's wrestling did an admirable job against Brock. A takedown machine. And he's been out of pure wrestling training longer than Lindland.
Henderson is still very very difficult to get down and he was an olympian in greco-roman.
So I don't really think rustiness is going to let Jacare takedown a Greco-Roman Olympic silver medalist.
Rousamir Palhares lost to Henderson.
Vinny Malgahaes lost to Ryan Bader. (not to mention 4-4 to go along with his 3rd at adcc)
Vitor lost to Tito, henderson, and Randy. (3rd at adcc)
Jeff Monson lost to a catch wrestler. ADCC champ
Dean Lister lost to Yushin Okami. Who isn't near olympic caliber and Lister was an ADCC absolute champ.
Nog lost to Henderson(and Henderson lost to Nog).
Bustamante(Mundials champ) has been beaten by Rampage, Henderson, and Chuck.
So Henderson who is probably most similar to Lindland has done well against the very best BJJ'ers.
So no. It's not as easy as BJJ world champs own all wrestlers. Royce Gracie thought the same thing and proceeded to get his arm nearly broken, and the only reason it wasn't was because Hughes didn't want to.
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wow never seen THIS kind of MMAth, couldn't disagree more. thought you were being facetious at 1st. you need to go watch lindland vs werdum.
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There is no MMATH. I'm not saying Lindland will win or lose. I'm saying that "the best BJJ guys are always > than the best wrestlers" is wrong.
And Lindland's Greco-Roman is >> than Henderson's. One's highest finish was 10th and one won silver.
Oh and I watched Werdum vs. Lindland. That was a hell of a transition to an armbar.
You should watch Dean Lister vs. Okami. Wait don't. No one should be forced to watch that. I'll describe the entire fight. Lister shoots!! Okami sprawls out of it!
And Lister beat PeDePano, Ferreira, Ribiero,and Marquardt on his way to ADCC absolute champion.
 
Originally posted by: omalley21
Date: December 15, 2009 at 05:39 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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Those other BJJ guys arent Jacare.
Lindland isnt as good as henderson.
Henderson beat Nog but it wasnt mma rules.
 
Originally posted by: SPX
Date: December 15, 2009 at 06:01 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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UKdonkbet said:
wow never seen THIS kind of MMAth, couldn't disagree more. thought you were being facetious at 1st. you need to go watch lindland vs werdum.
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Honestly, I thought he made some good points. I also don't believe that a high-level BJJ guy necessarily beats a high-level wrestler. Quite frankly, I think that BJJ's role has been greatly diminished in the past several years, because most of the wrestlers have developed good sub-defense. What we see all too often is guys with good BJJ who just end up on their backs for three rounds because they can't get a sub and they can't outwrestle their opponent. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying BJJ is useless--far from it--but that a strong wrestler with good sub-defense > than a great BJJ guy with poor wrestling.
 
Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: December 15, 2009 at 06:55 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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SPX said:
UKdonkbet said:
wow never seen THIS kind of MMAth, couldn't disagree more. thought you were being facetious at 1st. you need to go watch lindland vs werdum.
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Honestly, I thought he made some good points. I also don't believe that a high-level BJJ guy necessarily beats a high-level wrestler. Quite frankly, I think that BJJ's role has been greatly diminished in the past several years, because most of the wrestlers have developed good sub-defense. What we see all too often is guys with good BJJ who just end up on their backs for three rounds because they can't get a sub and they can't outwrestle their opponent. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying BJJ is useless--far from it--but that a strong wrestler with good sub-defense > than a great BJJ guy with poor wrestling.
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pretty much everything he said was a fact and not an opinion. I never said 'A+ BJJ' takes 'A+ wrestling' no matter. But I will say Jacare > Lindland on the ground. I was at Lister/Okami you nailed it. As far as your other results, just seemed you were making a case for wrestlers using them. This is MMA and that being said aome of those matches need to be looked at from what point in so and so's career it took place. Gracie/Hughes turned out to be what everyone thought it would be. It was no surprise to anyone. Gracie had no business in there w/the talent of Hughes at that point in his career
But again I didnt say great BJJ over awesome wrestling no question. I said I agreed LEGIT BJJ take world class wrestlers. As of now with just a little of tape watched, Jacare takes Lindland, let's see what the line says. One thing I've noticed talked about when Jacare comes up is his take down abilities (which someone mentioned) and his strength, specifically hand strength. Found an interview w/Couture which he said in their match when Jacare grabbed him it felt like a much bigger man grabbing him.
 
Originally posted by: bdmcleod
Date: December 15, 2009 at 07:40 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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omalley21 said:
Those other BJJ guys arent Jacare.
Lindland isnt as good as henderson.
Henderson beat Nog but it wasnt mma rules.
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Jacare lost to Ribiero the same weekend that Lister beat Ribiero. So I'd say Lister is pretty close to Jacare's skill level.
The biggest name that Jacare beat was a UD over Miller. The same guy that got absolutely wrecked a few fights earlier by the immortal Frank Trigg.
And what makes you say it wasn't MMA rules? 1999 Ring King of Kings 40 man tournament had ko endings, submission endings, and decision endings.
I'll probably bet a dog if it's over 150. No matter who it is. My reason being that Lindland is hard to tap, only Fedor and Bustamante have, and Jacare hasn't shown the same dominance against the better fighters. But I think Jacare's standup is > than Lindlands.
 
Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: December 15, 2009 at 09:36 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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SPX said:
Honestly, I thought he made some good points. I also don't believe that a high-level BJJ guy necessarily beats a high-level wrestler. Quite frankly, I think that BJJ's role has been greatly diminished in the past several years, because most of the wrestlers have developed good sub-defense. What we see all too often is guys with good BJJ who just end up on their backs for three rounds because they can't get a sub and they can't outwrestle their opponent. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying BJJ is useless--far from it--but that a strong wrestler with good sub-defense > than a great BJJ guy with poor wrestling.
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UKdonkbet said:
pretty much everything he said was a fact and not an opinion. I never said 'A+ BJJ' takes 'A+ wrestling' no matter. But I will say Jacare > Lindland on the ground. I was at Lister/Okami you nailed it. As far as your other results, just seemed you were making a case for wrestlers using them. This is MMA and that being said aome of those matches need to be looked at from what point in so and so's career it took place. Gracie/Hughes turned out to be what everyone thought it would be. It was no surprise to anyone. Gracie had no business in there w/the talent of Hughes at that point in his career
But again I didnt say great BJJ over awesome wrestling no question. I said I agreed LEGIT BJJ take world class wrestlers. As of now with just a little of tape watched, Jacare takes Lindland, let's see what the line says. One thing I've noticed talked about when Jacare comes up is his take down abilities (which someone mentioned) and his strength, specifically hand strength. Found an interview w/Couture which he said in their match when Jacare grabbed him it felt like a much bigger man grabbing him.
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Good points all around. The Gracie/Hughes argument I think is telling of what is going to happen with Lindland/Jacare. Lindland looked really sluggish against Fabio Negao, a guy who would not have been able to hang with Lindland when "The Law" was in his prime. It looks like Jacare will have better speed behind his punches and kicks.
The selling point for me is that Jacare always ends up in top position. I would fear that Lindland's one clear path to win to use his wrestling to stay in top control while avoiding submissions. But Jacare has put Mousassi, Mayhem, and I think EVERYONE he's gone up against on their back except the opponent in Jacare's first fight... who was getting beat by Jacare on the feet until the KO. I can easily see him doing the same to an over-the-hill Lindland, regardless of Lindland's wrestling credentials.
Jacare has also shown to have crazy transitions into subs...almost landing a flying armbar against Ian Murphy and probably would have tapped anyone not named Jason Miller those leg submissions in DREAM 4.
 
Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: December 15, 2009 at 11:57 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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Spent the last little while watching Lindland fights, he has def aged and slower a step. Jacare sheer athleticism should let get him to just about any position he wnats to be. Lindland would def rather be on top as most wrestlers, Lindland has to be on top to win.
bdmcleod said:
I'll probably bet a dog if it's over 150. No matter who it is. My reason being that Lindland is hard to tap, only Fedor and Bustamante have, and Jacare hasn't shown the same dominance against the better fighters. But I think Jacare's standup is > than Lindlands.
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I didnt realize you were saying you like the Dog no matter who it is. I understand that argument if it were closer to even for me. Lindland will def be the Dog I'd say, and I'd say at some point he will reach +150 range or higher. It would just have to be a lot higher than +150 for me to consider taking Lindland. I agree jacare's stand up > Lindland's
Galesic actually sweeps Jacare in their bout, Jacare is in mount and Galesic bucks and rolls him but Jacare has the presence of mind to find an arm in the scramble and rolls nicely into an arm bar. very quick and impressive. Galesic's ground game is above average to good, more so defensively, I'd say and Jacare makes him look weak.
In the Jacare/Patino fight, jacare's first MMA fight, I think Jacare did a terrific job stuffing take downs and neutralizing Patino's strength advantage. Lindland will have no where near the strength Patino had in this fight, and Jacare prob has only gotten stronger since then. jacare makes 2 very explosive take down attempts in the opening minute again Mousasi , the second resulting into great slam after picking Mousasi up on his shoulder. Mousasi is very strong for his size, proving so by bulking up and competing against HW's. Jacare was def winning the stand up until the KO.
Lindland does a decent job of riding Nascimento and his version of GnP to get the victory. But he can't use the same game plan against Souza that he did Negao Nasimento. Nascimento did a good job of creating distance on the ground at times using hip escapes and explosive lifts but was for the most part unsuccessful to get away. In the 3rd, Lindland is completely spent, he makes 3 very very weak take down attempts who "Negao" easily stuffs and Nascimento being equally exhausted and had taken a lot more punishment than Lindland. Negao actually judo trips Lindland late in the 3rd, then they immediately get back to their feet. I'm putting the most stock into this fight being it the most recent besides his Belfort effort which would be useless to re-watch. If his cardio hasn't improved, this only be close.
Jacare, if in unfavorable spot, will be able to sweep or get back to his feet if he needs to be. But off his back and Lindland in a unclosed guard, I see Jacare being comfortable and looking for submissions even from this position
 
Originally posted by: omalley21
Date: December 16, 2009 at 01:06 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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Rings king of kings tourney did not allow strikes to the head of a grounded opponent.
Also only 2 rounds.
Lindland is the clear underdog. +150 for lindland would be a terrible bet. Its damn near 2010. Its the new generation time. Lindland is done.
 
Originally posted by: Nitro
Date: December 16, 2009 at 09:17 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-le-vs-smith.20338/
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Anyone else think King Mo is being overvalued here? -600 on Bodog??
 
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