Originally posted by: Stevie_G Date: September 22, 2009 at 10:24 AM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
Figured I'd open the Strikeforce on CBS thread a little early. The only line released now is obviously for Rogers and Fedor. I put a small wager on Rogers at +425. He's since shifted to +400 on 5Dimes.
Currently on 5Dimes:
Brett Rogers +400
Fedor Emelianenko -550
Some might say that that mystery about Rogers ground game/takedown defense is a turn off from betting him. I happen to find it intriguing. I believe it could be close to 50/50 on the feet, with the ground is a definite question mark. The safe straight pick is obviously Fedor, but from a betting standpoint, I liked Rogers at +425 to implement good takedown defense and catch Fedor standing. It'll be interesting to see where the line shifts from here, if it all.
Originally posted by: TheBrainiac Date: September 22, 2009 at 12:46 PM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
50/50 on the feet ? WAT
More like 10/90 with 10 % punchers chance for Rogers , watch his fight against Abongo Humphrey and not 30 seconds against Arlovski ...
Originally posted by: Stevie_G Date: September 22, 2009 at 12:56 PM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
TheBrainiac said:
50/50 on the feet ? WAT
More like 10/90 with 10 % punchers chance for Rogers , watch his fight against Abongo Humphrey and not 30 seconds against Arlovski ...
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lol. Once again, if I had to pick a straight winner, I'd pick Fedor. I admit that I haven't watched as many Rogers fights as I should have to make such a claim. You may be right, but I think his size, power, and even his accuracy against Arlovski (albeit not particularly pretty) makes it better than 90/10 as you say. My gut says Rogers has a great shot on the feet, and -550 for Fedor for me is too expensive. I'm certainly not laying any major cash on this. I just liked the +425 small play on Rogers.
Originally posted by: insomnia Date: September 22, 2009 at 01:29 PM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
+425 not exciting enough for me, I don't see a distinct advantage or way he can win this fight aside from a lucky punch. And he punches slow. He's got 30lbs on fedor, but thats about it.
Originally posted by: SPX Date: September 22, 2009 at 01:43 PM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
insomnia said:
+425 not exciting enough for me, I don't see a distinct advantage or way he can win this fight aside from a lucky punch. And he punches slow. He's got 30lbs on fedor, but thats about it.
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I think +425 is worth a little .25u bet. I'm sure Fedor will win this one--he better!--but we've been seeing a lot of legends declining lately and it's bound to happen to him as well. s--- happens.
I think Fedor's price is just too high, so I'd either throw something small on Rogers or just stay away entirely. I'm just not sure I want to risk 6u for 1u.
Originally posted by: zY Date: September 22, 2009 at 03:10 PM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
LOL at 50/50 on the feet. The guy runs forward with his chin out throwing wild punches. Bet on him if you like but please don't try to feed us this nonsense.
Originally posted by: TheBrainiac Date: September 22, 2009 at 03:47 PM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
zY said:
LOL at 50/50 on the feet. The guy runs forward with his chin out throwing wild punches. Bet on him if you like but please don't try to feed us this nonsense.
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This and Rogers would have to be around + 900 for me to even consider betting on him , another King Mo vs Kerr type of fight here , other than lucky punch Rogers has nothing to offer what Fedor hasn't already seen . If Fedor was able to not only stand with prime Mirko butdominate him in stand up what is Rogers gonna do ? He has some fat weight on Fedor but that's it , Zulu Jr had same chances as Rogers . Even Roger's power is overrated - Abongo Humphrey took bunch of punches and didnt go down . Arlovski was - 350 against him and now Fedor with flawless record against x100 times better competition than Rogers is only - 550 , + 400 is way too low to bet against Fedor .
Originally posted by: insomnia Date: September 22, 2009 at 04:42 PM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
Originally posted by: TheBrainiac Date: September 22, 2009 at 05:05 PM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
insomnia said:
Braniac you post on RX forum? You had a good weekend eh
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Yes , I do . All easy wins but the one with Mirko fight not to go to distance , thought it was a loss for sure going into the last round .
Originally posted by: Stevie_G Date: September 23, 2009 at 07:56 AM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
I guess I need to clarify 50/50 on the feet. I realize Fedor is more skilled all around, including on the feet. But I consider striking in MMA very coinflipish, especially as the weight goes up. I remember reading a comment from GSP about why he takes fights to the ground all the time now. He said something along the lines that 4 ounce gloves in MMA make the striking more about hitting the bit shot then necessarily having skills on the feet. He believes when it comes to showing and winning with pure skill, its done on the ground. Someone like Anderson Silva and Machida have shown us otherwise, but I think GSPs take makes a lot of sense.
If Fedor wins, I suspect it'll be via submission. If it stays standing, Fedor can most defniitely land the big shot; I just don't think its a long shot that Rogers can as well.
Originally posted by: Sheriff Date: September 23, 2009 at 09:07 AM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
Instead of throwing money away by betting on Rogers, give it to charity or the poor in africa. He doesn´t stand a chance, not even on his FEET! By no means is it 50-50.
Originally posted by: Stevie_G Date: September 23, 2009 at 09:21 AM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
atteiaissas said:
Instead of throwing money away by betting on Rogers, give it to charity or the poor in africa. He doesn´t stand a chance, not even on his FEET! By no means is it 50-50.
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On the contrary, you can go ahead and bet the house on Fedor!
A unit to me is 10 dollars, and I bet a buck fifty on Rogers. I am a "for fun" bettor. Sure, if makes you less uptight, I'll send a couple of bucks to Africa. lol.
And... at the end of day, you are totally misunderstanding! The fight is not 50/50. The stand-up skill skill / quality of wins is not 50/50. My argument is simple... Rogers caught a way more technical striker in Arlovski (arguably more technical than Fedor, though known to be chinny). We know very little about Rogers against top tier competition other than Arlovski. A ton of question marks here. Will Rogers win? Seems unlikely. Worth a for fun bet to me? Absolutely.
Originally posted by: marctheshark Date: September 23, 2009 at 01:12 PM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/strikeforce-on-cbs-saturday-november-17th.17858/
There are 3 things to do with a fight such as this. 1) Stay away. 2)Wait for the money to come pouring in on the fav(which it should) and then make a .25u play on the UD. 3) If you like the fav wait for a prop bet at much better odds. Either way I think it's better to wait and see what happens.
