Tito -125 vs Forrest -105

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: October 22, 2009 at 06:38 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

this line is up on sportsbook.com. didnt check bodog or bookmaker or 5dime to see if they had it also. got Forrest for 2u just to lock this price. will def hedge a little bit.
whats everyone's take on the line movement for this one? can you really seeing forrest still being the dog come fight night? i think his popularity will cause his line to become less attractive. i know tito is (was) one of the most popular fighters ever but that could be what was against what is now. really interested in the movement of this one

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: October 22, 2009 at 09:08 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

Too much uncertainity for me UK. Forrest just took 2 bad beatings, and who knows how good Tito is going to be. I don't see this line moving much in the early going.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: MMAMoneyLine
Date: October 22, 2009 at 09:31 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

Eh...Ortiz has never impressed me much, although he was competitive against Machida and Evans. He hasn't beat someone decisively (not named Ken Shamrock) since 2004. The Ortiz/Griffin fight in 2006 was very close...a lot of people thought Griffin should have won that fight.
With that being said, you have to believe Forrest's skills have evolved in that 3 year period of time more so than Tito's. For those who think that Forrest isn't ready emotionally, the last time he had an emotional breakdown after a fight (vs. Keith Jardine) he went on to beat Ramirez, Rua and Jackson.
I like Forrest a lot at his current odds. Expect them to shift in the next few days...so get your money on Griffin now!

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Performify
Date: October 22, 2009 at 09:06 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

Bodog has the fight up now.
I think Ortiz -125 / Griffin -105 is one of the most mis-priced lines I've seen in MMA wagering in at least the past year. Maybe past two years.
-P

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: October 22, 2009 at 09:11 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

Performify said:
Bodog has the fight up now.
I think Ortiz -125 / Griffin -105 is one of the most mis-priced lines I've seen in MMA wagering in at least the past year. Maybe past two years.
-P
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i would have to agree. almost completely ruled out hedging any my 2u on Forrest, which i had initially planned on considering movement

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: zY
Date: October 22, 2009 at 09:29 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

Performify said:
Bodog has the fight up now.
I think Ortiz -125 / Griffin -105 is one of the most mis-priced lines I've seen in MMA wagering in at least the past year. Maybe past two years.
-P
Click to expand...
Forgive me for being retarded, but uh, mispriced which way?

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Performify
Date: October 22, 2009 at 10:02 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

Well since I posted it's now Griffin -140, Ortiz +110 if that gives you any indication

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: October 22, 2009 at 10:58 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

After hearing what you guys are saying, I can understand the thinking behind the fighter being so mis-priced...with Tito's last action in the cage taking place over a year ago, Tito coming off surgery, and Forrest improving his overall game by leaps and bounds, while Ortiz has kind of remained a GnP fighter without adding more elements to his game.
That being said...without knowing how well Tito has recovered, there's kind of a gray area of how bad Griffin's line is going to drop.
IF
Tito is in top shape..I still see him packing more power then Forrest, being able to take Forrest down and possibly ride out a decision like last time, and rocking Forrest with GnP without being subbed (very doubtful Griffin can sub Tito IMO).
This of course is a very big if, and I have been convinced to made a 4u wager on Griffin at -115 on Sportsbook, since that line definitely doesn't seem right. I might be looking to make an arbitrage profit, as I am still wary that Tito may have fully recovered and can still out wrestle Griffin to the ground at this point in time. It depends on how Tito looks before the fight.
EDIT: Bodog has Griffin at -150 already...yikes.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: October 22, 2009 at 11:23 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

GuidaClayAllDay said:
After hearing what you guys are saying, I can understand the thinking behind the fighter being so mis-priced...with Tito's last action in the cage taking place over a year ago, Tito coming off surgery, and Forrest improving his overall game by leaps and bounds, while Ortiz has kind of remained a GnP fighter without adding more elements to his game.
That being said...without knowing how well Tito has recovered, there's kind of a gray area of how bad Griffin's line is going to drop.
IF
Tito is in top shape..I still see him packing more power then Forrest, being able to take Forrest down and possibly ride out a decision like last time, and rocking Forrest with GnP without being subbed (very doubtful Griffin can sub Tito IMO).
This of course is a very big if, and I have been convinced to made a 4u wager on Griffin at -115 on Sportsbook, since that line definitely doesn't seem right. I might be looking to make an arbitrage profit, as I am still wary that Tito may have fully recovered and can still out wrestle Griffin to the ground at this point in time. It depends on how Tito looks before the fight.
EDIT: Bodog has Griffin at -150 already...yikes.
Click to expand...
I got 2u more at -135 and now that same book has it at -155. within 2hrs time it jumped that much

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: MoDogg
Date: October 23, 2009 at 12:47 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

Performify said:
Well since I posted it's now Griffin -140, Ortiz +110 if that gives you any indication
Click to expand...
I saw the line come up tonight and hit Griffin pretty hard thinking the line was way off too. Then i saw that post about the line being way off from you Performity, and i had that sudden sick feeling in my stomach hoping i saw some of the same thing you did. Whew. This was one of my biggest bets since the Sean Sherk debacle against Frankie Edgar, and i hope this one ends better for all of us (i don't know many people on Frankie in that fight)

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: October 23, 2009 at 02:25 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

MoDogg said:
I saw the line come up tonight and hit Griffin pretty hard thinking the line was way off too. Then i saw that post about the line being way off from you Performity, and i had that sudden sick feeling in my stomach hoping i saw some of the same thing you did. Whew. This was one of my biggest bets since the Sean Sherk debacle against Frankie Edgar, and i hope this one ends better for all of us (i don't know many people on Frankie in that fight)
Click to expand...
I had Frankie. and was called stupid by many many people on here. most ate thier crow though

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: drew440
Date: October 23, 2009 at 01:40 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

I opened Forrest when I saw this, too. The Lyoto line was also very off for Tito. Hopefully there will be even more value in playing against Tito in the future.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: ZedzDead
Date: October 24, 2009 at 10:53 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

Tito is at +140 now, at what point do you think he is worth a play? If Tito hits +200 I would probably make a small play on him.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: UKdonkbet
Date: October 24, 2009 at 04:29 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

ZedzDead said:
Tito is at +140 now, at what point do you think he is worth a play? If Tito hits +200 I would probably make a small play on him.
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good question. i honestly thought he would open at +175-ish then be alittle over +200 by fight night and that would be about accurate imo

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: TeamBeekerMMA
Date: October 27, 2009 at 10:42 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/tito-125-vs-forrest-105.18633/

UKdonkbet said:
MoDogg said:
I saw the line come up tonight and hit Griffin pretty hard thinking the line was way off too. Then i saw that post about the line being way off from you Performity, and i had that sudden sick feeling in my stomach hoping i saw some of the same thing you did. Whew. This was one of my biggest bets since the Sean Sherk debacle against Frankie Edgar, and i hope this one ends better for all of us (i don't know many people on Frankie in that fight)
Click to expand...
I had Frankie. and was called stupid by many many people on here. most ate thier crow though
Click to expand...
Yeah, you're welcome for that one