UFC 146
- Thread starter Nastycrow
- Start date
I would have to assume most books would make the lines for the inside the distance and the KO lines for Mir/JDS fairly low on the JDS side.
Do you guys think any of the props for Hunt/Struve will be juicy? Maybe the going the distance line would be pretty solid.
Do you have a reasoning Mikey?
I was thinking about the same actually. JDS great striker and Mir a great submission artist, but Mir can't use that advantage (fully) because of the good TDD of JDS. I'm only thinking about what will happen if Mir puts JDS against the cage and start working from there (as he did in most recent fights, which were very boring to watch :lol: ), because Mir is very powerful. Somehow I think that if that will happen we might get a big upset.
JDS is going to have a huge speed advantage if the surgery was a success and if his knee is completely healed. Mirs wrestling did not impress me in the Cro Cop fight and Nelson fight. JDS has shown great takedown defense and/or ability to get up after being taken down ala the Gonzaga fight. Moreover, we have heard the reports from Nogs camp that JDS has "great hips"
Besides the Nelson fight, Mir has not employed a grappling gameplan. The Nog 2 fight was not Mir forcing the fight to the ground but a last minute saving move. Moreover, JDS has KOed decent chins in the UFC (Cain, Werdum and some could argue Struve) and Mir is on the downside of his career. I have always stated that Mir has a good chin, he survived tough rounds with Brock and was still actively looking for subs despite the Carwin beatdown. (Mir has heart IMO).
I feel like JDS will be the freshest in Round 1 as Rogan would say. The Round 1 play was a strict value play at +175. I would play it at Evens but not worse. JDS has ko 5 of his 8 opponents in Round 1. The other 3 were Cro Cop, Carwin, and Roy. (2 out of three are good chins and many argue the Carwin fight should have been stopped). JDS has great footwork which will allow him to get in rather quickly against the plodding Mir and should be able to avoid Mir Wall and Stalling.(which you have me worried about now) I expect JDS to take the center of the cage and jab/ body jab early and often as mir is on the outside. Mir is going to have to throw punches to get on the inside which will allow JDS to use his counterstrikes to pick apart Mir.
My pick is more of confidence in JDS than a fade on Mir. I don't like putting a lot of money in HW fights, as "anything can happen" with a greater percentage and Mir has decent power. But, JDS will have a speed and power advantage that I can count on at -280. I do have a play on the fight not going the distance as a small "hedge", for lack of a better word, if Mir grabs a leg.
Edit: Also, if you are going to play JDS what is the point in laying -500. Very little chance he goes for a sub let alone sinks one. Also, besides Cormier/Barnett, I do not recall the last HW fight going 5 rounds. so -280 is the best value, you will find on JDS
MikeyHatTrick said:
..
Moreover, we have heard the reports from Nogs camp that JDS has "great hips"
Didn't had that info, but it's very useful ofcourse.
...
JDS has great footwork which will allow him to get in rather quickly against the plodding Mir and should be able to avoid Mir Wall and Stalling.(which you have me worried about now
sorry
) I expect JDS to take the center of the cage and jab/ body jab early and often as mir is on the outside. Mir is going to have to throw punches to get on the inside which will allow JDS to use his counterstrikes to pick apart Mir.
Good point. He won't get near JDS without punching, but it makes Mir quite vulnerable.
...I do have a play on the fight not going the distance as a small "hedge", for lack of a better word, if Mir grabs a leg.
At those odds I'll leave it and be confident in JDS doing the job.
Edit: Also, if you are going to play JDS what is the point in laying -500. Very little chance he goes for a sub let alone sinks one. Also, besides Cormier/Barnett, I do not recall the last HW fight going 5 rounds. so -280 is the best value, you will find on JDS
100% true. JDS certainly isn't going to submit Mir here and I don't see this one going over 5 rounds.
Click to expand...
Thanks for your view!
One last question: how did Mir do in 5-rounders? (He did got a beat against Carwin/Lesnar didn't he?) Just saw recent matches of Mir.
Submitted Slyvia in Round 1
KOed Nog in Round 2
Lesnar Koed him in Round 2
Carwin Koed him in Round 1
Mir's record in title fights 2-2
Note: I am not a professional, I am up over my gambling career however have made large wagers on fights that I shouldnt have (Penn -700 vs Edgar 1) and lost huge on bets that had value (Schaub -220 over Nog). For true expert advice (IMO) GCAD, ChrisB, thewiseman, PredictionPain, UKdonkbet all have much better track records than me and breakdown fights better.
JDS/Mir not going the distance is now at -900, you can throw it in a 2 -3 team parlay for better odds
"Although I believe Mir can beat Dos Santos on the ground, I really struggle to see how he's going to get him down there to work his magic. 'JDS' is a big, strong guy with very good takedown defense and Mir isn't a guy known for shooting in with big takedowns. It could be difficult for him." Cain Velasquez
I'm relative new myself. But I love to analyse all by myself (and listen to other people comments). What I meant to say: I'll take any comment serious no matter who said it (unless your a proven dork
)
Other thing that worries me in common: it's becoming a public bet. I hate those
Why the heck is Herman such big dog against Nelson? Because of the fact that Nelson fought bigger opponents?
I don't like Nelsons way of fighting and I also think he's overrated. His condition is absolutely horrible. Only plus is his chin and punching power. Nothing more. I think Herman is the better striker here. So I think these odds aren't justified.
MikeyHatTrick said:
Submitted Slyvia in Round 1
KOed Nog in Round 2
Lesnar Koed him in Round 2
Carwin Koed him in Round 1
Mir's record in title fights 2-2
Note: I am not a professional, I am up over my gambling career however have made large wagers on fights that I shouldnt have (Penn -700 vs Edgar 1) and lost huge on bets that had value (Schaub -220 over Nog). For true expert advice (IMO) GCAD, ChrisB, thewiseman, PredictionPain, UKdonkbet all have much better track records than me and breakdown fights better.
JDS/Mir not going the distance is now at -900, you can throw it in a 2 -3 team parlay for better odds
"Although I believe Mir can beat Dos Santos on the ground, I really struggle to see how he's going to get him down there to work his magic. 'JDS' is a big, strong guy with very good takedown defense and Mir isn't a guy known for shooting in with big takedowns. It could be difficult for him." Cain Velasquez
Click to expand...
dude, Mickey you're selling yourself short. You have excellent insight. Always
yeah MHT, have you seen my 2012?
have these, kind of like this event
Parlay - Velasquez (-380) & JDS w/in distance (-350) - 2.66u to win 1.66u
Struve (-125) 3.75u to win 3u
Hardy (-140) 2.8u to win 2u
Dollaway (+115) 1.16u to win 1.33u
Like Skyscraper a lot here. He's resilient and the grappling discrepancy is too much.
Seems like Hardy's match to lose. If I was looking for 3 qualities in a tailor made opponent for Hardy, "Suspect chin", "prefers to stand" and "past his prime" might be those 3.
Dollaway is more of a bet against Miller. Worried about Miller in the scramble if Dollaway initiates TDs, but confident in Dollaway's TDD vs Miller for the most part - any successful TD by Miller will be a challenge and drain a gas tank that looked absolutely horrid last time (partially b/c he spent 2 minutes trying to get one TD)
PredictionPain said:
Like Skyscraper a lot here. He's resilient and the grappling discrepancy is too much.
Click to expand...
How does Johnson do against fighters with submission/grappling power like Struve? He went easily to the ground with Pat Barry. Sometimes in a very nasty position. But I think his punching power, punching speed and agression is too much for Struve. Struve is prone to get hit in the first round.
That said; Johnson did had reach advantage in former fights, which he doesn't have in this one.
All in all I think it's very difficult to predict this one and I think it's a true 50%-50% match. Which means odds arent right for Struve to back him.
So could you please clarify a little bit more then just the words above
About the Nelson vs. Herman fight:
Nelson is probably fighting for his job this UFC. But is he willing to win (whether he's capable or not)? A man who says things like this (from MMA Junkie main site) can't be to focussed on the match:
"I don't know why I couldn't do it," Nelson told MMAjunkie.com (www.mmjaunkie.com) of a possible pro-wrestling career when his UFC days are done.
If you are going to play Struve, I think the best play would be Struve Inside the Distance or Stuve by Sub once those props become available.
Lavar seems to be rather novice on the ground whereas Stuve is a brown belt. As stated above, Barry was able to mount Lavar and that is a scary situation if Struve does it here.
One thing that is consistent with Mir is that he susceptible to being rocked. In his last fight Big Nog dazed him. Carwin and Brock both rocked him. I just don't see how Mir who has left his chin open in the past is able to answer JDS main strength: his boxing. I see Mir losing 9 times out of 10.
Lavar didn't seem too confident about Struve. He said when asked he was just happy to collect another paycheck. On that note I know Lavar likes to bang and maybe he is strong enough to muscle out of Struve's submission attempts. Barry gave us a look on how bad Lavar is on the ground. If Lavar can't KO Struve in the first round I see Struve leg kicking Lavar forcing Lavar to rush in and getting a takedown on the scramble. I think once it hits the floor (no matter who is on top) Struve will finish it.
My dog pick is CB Dollaway. He will win by decision.
MMFloors said:
PredictionPain said:
Like Skyscraper a lot here. He's resilient and the grappling discrepancy is too much.
Click to expand...
How does Johnson do against fighters with submission/grappling power like Struve? He went easily to the ground with Pat Barry. Sometimes in a very nasty position. But I think his punching power, punching speed and agression is too much for Struve. Struve is prone to get hit in the first round.
That said; Johnson did had reach advantage in former fights, which he doesn't have in this one.
All in all I think it's very difficult to predict this one and I think it's a true 50%-50% match. Which means odds arent right for Struve to back him.
So could you please clarify a little bit more then just the words above
Click to expand...
No problem
LOVE Skyscraper a lot here. Prone to getting hit? Sure. Does he fight like a gangly uncoordinated guy? Yeah. I think his KOs have been to that one punch shot w/ Browne and RoyBoy, and also JDS' swarm. Johnson shows me aggression and throws with bad intent but just not technique, great brawler but not a KO artist. A look at his record make him seem to be a Shane Carwin sans the grappling base. Struve has taken fighters similar to Johnson into deep waters after receiving beatings to win.
The grappling discrapancy is glaring. Johnson got shown up by Pat Barry in that dept, which IMO, is unnacptable. Struve might not be the best in scrambles but his limbs give him such an advantage. Triangles that cinch in effortlessly, outstanding posture and base when in mount, and a body triangle I could not see Johnson escaping w/o the aid of the bell.
Johnson is really good at hitting people, that's a good quality to have and people with it always have at least one clear cut paths to victory. It just seems so narrow in this instance given what Struve brings to the table. I worry about Struve's willingness to stand given Johnson's clear deficiency in the grappling dept, but that doesn't stop me from thinking Sttuve wins this matchup around a 65% clip.