Originally posted by: bonecrusher_JL Date: August 12, 2009 at 04:46 PM Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-fight-night-diaz-vs-guillard.16489/
the line for this match up is currenty Diaz (-230) and Guillard (+190).... I feel like there may be some value on guillard... what is anyones thoughts?? lets get that money
All but one of Melvin's losses have been via submission and the majority of Diaz's wins are by submission so this almost seems like a gimme match for Diaz, especially when take into account the majority of Melvin's wins are by KO/TKO and Diaz hasn't been KO'd. However, I think Diaz's last two fights have shown that stronger guys can effectively hold him down and neutralize his Jitz and I would definitely think Melvin is the stronger of the two. Also, even though most people feel Melvin lost to Tibau he did show improved ground skills in avoiding submission attempts and being able to return to his feet. Nate Diaz will not be able to take down Guillard as easily as Tibau, in my opinion, unless he utilizes a lot of judo trips or manages to pull guard. I would think if Melvin can keep his personal life straight (a big ? for him) and actually has a good camp he could put together a game plan to have a chance to grind out a decision. I think Nate is right to be the favorite though. I'd consider betting on Nate at -200 or better, but probably wouldn't throw money on Guillard unless his line shifted closer to +220 or so.
I'll be stayin away from this one at the current lines. i'd like nate at -200 or better or melvin at +230 or so. too close at current prices tho. for me
