Why do Junkie voters favor Lauzon over Miller by 73.5% to 22%? Miller had a bad year in 2015, but he won his last fight and looked good. And he beat Lauzon in their first fight back in 2012. I don't see any good reason to favor Lauzon now, especially by such a wide margin.
anotherusername said:
Why do Junkie voters favor Lauzon over Miller by 73.5% to 22%? Miller had a bad year in 2015, but he won his last fight and looked good. And he beat Lauzon in their first fight back in 2012. I don't see any good reason to favor Lauzon now, especially by such a wide margin.
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Because
I picked Jim. It's very hard to pick a Lauzon fight. He's very inconsistent. Jim Miller was on a bit of a slide but against very good fighters (Cerrone, Dariush, Chiesa) and Diego. He was apparently suffering from Lyme Disease and didn't know it, which explained his performance against Diego. He found out before the Gomi fight, and I imagine he got it treated or is getting it treated. I wouldn't put too much weight on a win over Gomi, though.
Condit by dec.
Lauzon by sub.
Pettis by dec.
Even though watching Maia on the ground is an art in itself, I kinda hope that they will keep it standing for some reason. Would be kinda cool if Maia picks Condit apart while standing, even though it seems very unlikely.
Im going with Lauzon mostly cause of Millers last performances even though he is coming of from a victory, I kinda feel that Lauzon is more hungry than Miller, might very well be incorrect about this though. The match up makes good sense to me any how.
I really want Pettis to get the W, but not really sure how his body will handle the cut to 45. Oliviera missed weight his last fight if im not mistaken, so maybe it goes both ways, idk. If Pettis can keep it standing I can see him walking a way with a TKO/dec.
Stoked af for these fights.
I'm surprised the UFC has been so patient with Charles Oliveira. He has missed weight four times and one of those times they had to scrap the fight because he got sick as a result.
calle235 said:
Condit by dec.
Would be kinda cool if Maia picks Condit apart while standing, even though it seems
very unlikely
.
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And I think that's very much understated. More like (borderline) no-that's-not-happening.
Personally I think the key will be if Condit can bring it to deep waters. If he gets taken down and controlled, but not submitted in the first 2.5-3 rds, then I see him finishing Maia in the championship rounds.
Edit: Condit by T/KO.
I want to see Pettis knocking Oliveira out via headkick ! His last fights were frustrating
Condit - Maia is a great fight. If Condit can avoid the takedown he shouldn't have a lot of problem. If it goes to the ground, he need to stay calm (like Rory Macdonald) and get up !
Blair Bones said:
And I think that's very much understated. More like (borderline) no-that's-not-happening.
Personally I think the key will be if Condit can bring it to deep waters. If he gets taken down and controlled, but not submitted in the first 2.5-3 rds, then I see him finishing Maia in the championship rounds.
Edit: Condit by T/KO.
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This is a bad matchup for Condit. Maia has always had elite submission skills, but nowadays his takedowns are elite as well, and Condit's TDD is not one of his strong areas. I see this going a lot like Maia vs Brown, with Condit getting taken down and never getting a chance to fight his fight. As for cardio, Maia may not have the best standup cardio, but he can grapple all day.
anotherusername said:
Why do Junkie voters favor Lauzon over Miller by 73.5% to 22%? Miller had a bad year in 2015, but he won his last fight and looked good. And he beat Lauzon in their first fight back in 2012. I don't see any good reason to favor Lauzon now, especially by such a wide margin.
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That is your opinion, and you fall into the 22%. 73% are of the opinion that Lauzon will win. There is no science behind this, all completely subjective.
anotherusername said:
This is a bad matchup for Condit. Maia has always had elite submission skills, but nowadays his takedowns are elite as well, and Condit's TDD is not one of his strong areas. I see this going a lot like Maia vs Brown, with Condit getting taken down and never getting a chance to fight his fight. As for cardio, Maia may not have the best standup cardio, but he can grapple all day.
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3 rounds is a terrible matchup. Moving it to 5 rounds as they have certainly evens the odds. I agree with you on the Maia-Brown analogy (3 round fight). I would not be surprised at all if the fight plays out like that. But if Condit can play enough defense to get through those first 3 without being submitted, I don't think the take downs come as easy for Maia and Condit's no stranger to 5 round fights with fantastic cardio. On-the-feet striking exchanges will favour NBK. Also, NBK is no slouch off his back. I've only seen three Matt Brown fights (green Wonderboy, Maia, Ellenburger), so I'm really not sure how their ground games compare.
Brown's ground game is nowhere close to Condit's. Yes, Maia still has the bette ground game, but Condit is very good at mma grappling. He will use elbows off his back effectively. He can throw submissions very fast. While he probably won't catch Maia, it may be enough for him to get one of the many sneaky sweeps that he has.
I doubt very much that this will look anything like Maia/Brown.
Also, Condit does not have terrible TDD. Now, I am not claiming he has great TDD, but it is better than most give him credit for. He doesn't usually try to avoid being taken down (certainly not to the extent that he lets it affect his striking game) because he is very confident on his back. His TD kryptonite has mostly been powerful, explosive wrestlers that exploit his stance changes. That does not describe Maia's TD style at all.
Blair Bones said:
3 rounds is a terrible matchup. Moving it to 5 rounds as they have certainly evens the odds.
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Rounds 4 and 5 help Condit only if he survives to see them. I agree that his chances would improve in those rounds, but I think he has probably already lost by then. Another factor to consider is that if Maia has dominated via grappling for 3 rounds without finishing Condit, then Condit would need to finish Maia to get the W. If Maia has enough left in the tank to use his grappling to stall, then he still wins by decision.
If Maia will not control the distance he has slim chances of taking Condit down and tbh Condit is the one who controls the distance and he is longer and can engage quickly. I do not see maia effective with his TD's esp. when he will probably gonna go for it from the get go and will telegraph them as he used to. And also IMO Maia is dangerous when he have guys close to cage - and here as well I think Natural Born Killer will avoid it.
He will avoid he will control it he will destroy it!
I'm so torn on the main event here...Am a huge fan and have a ton of respect for both guys. A part of me wants Carlos to win and become champion because he would be such a great champion and deserves it, the other part also wants to see Damien at least get a shot at the belt and he would also make a great champion...
I'll just have to watch and enjoy the fight and root for both guys and may the best man win. But have to say am leaning
slightly
Carlos just because of the 5 rounds.
Pettis gonna put on a
show
against Oliveira. TKO via body kick from hell.
I notice both camps were pretty honest about their game plans and their own weaknesses in the Road to the Octagon segment. I think Carlos has it, but that might be a little biased. My favorite fighter all the way back to holding the WEC belt.
Pettis hasn't been good since the enhanced testing started for the ufc and his strength has gone down since his fight with Gilbert. Pettis does have good standup so if this fight stays standing he should win.
I love Joe, but this is a tough fight for him. He already lost to Miller and I don't know why this fight would go any different.
The main event I think will be a good win for Maia. Condit has decent grappling, but Maia is just on another level. Condit looked out of his element when Nick Diaz got him down and Maia is a couple steps above Diaz. Condit does have a chance at landing a knee or a big shot when Maia is on his way in but on the mat I think he is going to get worked over
Leaning towards Condit, I like both guys but I feel like Condit has a diverse enough skill set to cause Demian Maia problems, people have talked about the Matt Brown fight but if there's one fight that I think is important in analyzing how this fight could go it's actually the Rory McDonald fight.
I hope I am wrong but I see Maia just smothering Condit and getting him to the ground where he keeps on smothering him until time runs out or he gets a sub.
