WEC 43 lines out on Betcris

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: October 07, 2009 at 11:34 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

I missed the initial jump. Current lines as of 11:30pm eastern. I scouted out Campuzano and I'm leaning towards a play on page...i'll put in some research time tonight.
Eddie Wineland +140
Manny Tapia -170
Rafael Assuncao -370
Yves Jabouin +300
Dave Jansen -115
Richard Crunkilton -115
Anthony Njokuani -240
Muhsin Corbbrey +190
Charlie Valencia -345
Coty Wheeler +275
Noah Thomas +225
Scott Jorgensen -285
Deividas Taurosevicius -140
Javier Vazquez +110
Damacio Page -325
Will Campuzano +265
Mackens Semerzier +450
Wagnney Fabiano -600

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: TheBrainiac
Date: October 08, 2009 at 01:02 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

Wagnney at anything better than - 800 , he is fighting a guy with a 3-0 record but combined record of those 3 opponents is 1:3 :lol: , opponent is purple belt in BJJ with very low level wrestling credentials , also Semerzier is taking this fight on a 10 days notice I believe .

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: October 08, 2009 at 01:10 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

Man, a lot of these lines are well set IMO. I'll wait to see when the other books release lines and see if there's any good action. Don't want to touch Jansen/Crunkilton or Vazquez/Taurosevicius...and Page and Fabiano are too expensive for me. Only play I made was Jorgensen at -285. I like some of the underdog's chances here.
EDIT: yeah Brainiac I was thinking about taking Wagney anyway. I want to take a chance and see if another book will come out with a line at -500 to -600. He's -700 now.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: TheBrainiac
Date: October 08, 2009 at 01:19 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

What I've learned from betting on WEC that there are great amount of bad beats : guys want to show off their skill to get noticed which ends up in stand and bang style fights a lot . At one point your guy will look like a winner but doesnt put his opponent away and then he gets laid out some seconds later .
Eddie Whineland vs Manny Tapia - somebody is getting knocked out here big time , Tapia has more power but he also has some holes in his defense , just bet on red or black for a much quicker payout or loss .
Charlie Valencia vs Coty Wheeler - same story here , most likely stand and bang fight , Valencia doesnt have any great skills to be - 350 against anybody , looks like either dog or nada fight .

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Nitro
Date: October 08, 2009 at 01:26 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

Is this a televised event? I dont have the channel listings or anything..

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: zY
Date: October 08, 2009 at 03:29 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

Nitro said:
Is this a televised event? I dont have the channel listings or anything..
Click to expand...
It's on VS, a channel that nobody has.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: October 09, 2009 at 11:25 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

Anyone considering making any plays? It's been a ghost town in here when it comes to talking about WEC 43

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Stevie_G
Date: October 09, 2009 at 11:59 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

My gut tells me Benson is a live underdog, and is not a bad bet at +300.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: October 09, 2009 at 12:26 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

Yeah I'm in for a .5u. I watched Henderson vs Njokuani the other day and I couldn't believe how strong Henderson was and the non-stop pressure he applied. I agree definitely value at +300.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: marctheshark
Date: October 09, 2009 at 09:29 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

Only one play for me on this one. I'll take smooth Ben for .25u @ +305. Leaning towards Jansen as well but don't know enough about him. If I did bet it would be more of a bet against Crunkilton than for Jansen.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: October 09, 2009 at 11:36 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

Plays:
"Smooth" Henderson .5u at +300
. Any bet on Henderson over +225 has +EV IMO. Henderson can be KO'd (happened once and Shane Roller nearly did it as well), and Cerrone recovers extremely quick if he's hurt, but Henderson has "Guida-like" tenaciousness with his takedowns and I think Benson can take at least 3 rounds by keeping him on his back. Win or lose, I can't be convinced that this isn't a great value bet due to due to Benson's elite wrestling.
Scott Jorgensen 1.5u at -285
Best line is currently at -325. Thomas tends to favor grappling up immediately with his opponents, but I think he will run into problems with Jorgenson, a 3-time Pac-10 champion wrestler. In Jorgenson's last fight he took a vicious shot from Buenlos early in the first round, and spent the entire fight recovering and almost came back to win. Noah Thomas's striking is no where near as good as Buenlos. The step up in competition and the wrestling background Jorgensen has makes this a very favorable matchup for Jorgensen IMO. Jorgensen must be careful to not get caught in a gullotine or armbar...but I think he has a safe path to victory by staying on his feet and using his wrestling in reverse.
Wagnney Fabiano 5u at -700
Like Brainiac said, Semerzier is going from facing 3 fighters who have a combined total of 1 win, to facing the 3rd or 4th best featherweight in the world. He claims to be very well rounded but there's such a huge gap in submission skills...I see Fabiano winning this 95% of the time. Semerzier is not great at any one thing, the only thing worth noting is that apparently he spars with Miguel Torres. I think Fabiano will make quick work of him like he did to his opponents in the IFL. It seems like 10 days ago Reed Harris might have called up Torres's gym, and begged if they had a featherweight ready to fight.
I spent a lot of time looking into Jansen/Crunkilton, Taurosevicus/Vazquez, and others but at this time I just don't see the value in the lines to make a play justifiable.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: elfudge35
Date: October 10, 2009 at 02:11 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

dammit, I've been busy, wish I would have gotten Jorgensen at -285, at -450 now on Bodog, really missed out on that one, I'm only on Henderson, and smaller than usual plays on Page and Njokuani

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: zY
Date: October 10, 2009 at 09:05 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

*SPOILERS BELOW*
Oh man. Fabiano just got choked out in the first round. What a ridiculous upset. Sorry for you guys that went big on him. :/

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: October 10, 2009 at 09:18 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

YIKES!
I am stunned. I can't believe Fabiano got SUBBED! How did this happen! The lines moved violently today against Fabiano, but I don't know why. from the MMAjunkie replay it seems Fabiano was having his way and then got careless when moving back in on top.
A 3rd of the profits that I made thus far...vanished after DREAM 11/Fabiano. s--- happens...got to be in it for the long term.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: GuidaClayAllDay
Date: October 10, 2009 at 09:20 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

*
Goes out on drinking binge, decides he will watch WEC on DVR tomorrow
*

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: marctheshark
Date: October 11, 2009 at 02:17 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

Tough one GCAD. I know how you feel. I stay away from these heavy odds now because I have been burned before and it really does suck to lose a big chunk on one fight like that. Just remember this is a marathon, not a sprint. You'll bounce back. I was with you on the Henderson pick for 1/4 u. Low money is better than no money.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: insomnia
Date: October 11, 2009 at 02:22 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/wec-43-lines-out-on-betcris.18276/

Damn, the Wagnney loss was particularly damning, this guy is a top ranked 3rd degree blackbelt fighting a purple belt with few fights. What a huge upset.
Cerrone vs Henderson was close, IMO cerrone should have won the decision.
I had no bets on this, bad night for the two heavy favorites. Best of luck at UFC 104 I guess!