Originally posted by: Sockbat
Date: January 15, 2009 at 12:24 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/
osubuckeye4 said:
Sockbat said:
are you kidding me?
My play of the year is Rousimar Palhares @ -315 over Jeremy Horn.
I've studied Mr Palhares extensively before he fought Henderson. and there is no way in hell i see Horn winning 25% of the time. I have him at 10% AT MOST. which would put value in Palhares for me at up to -1000. -315 is absolute thievery.
just at a quick glance.
1. Horn will not KO Palhares. Henderson landed several clean powershots to his face and couldn't do it. Horn is several notches below Danny in that department. Not going to happen.
2. Palhares will manhandle him much like Nate did. Palhares is much stronger and faster then Horn. Horn cannot summit Palhares. Not going to happen.
sure, Horn is a slick old-timer with over 100 fights and 80 wins, but Palhares is on another level of talent and is athletically superior in every aspect.
when i first saw this matchup was going to happen, i thought Horn was being put in this match to be the sacrificial lamb. he was the perfect matchup for Palhares
the only way i can see Horn winning is if he uses his height to outbox Palhares for 3 rounds. but i just don't see that happening. i think Palhares will score the TD and sub him in the first round.
i'm betting the farm on this one. :mrgreen:
Click to expand...
I could also see Horn winning by flash KO or freak injury to Palhares... but that's possible in every fight.
Aside from that though, I agree with everything said here.
Then again, I think the betting public does as well, because the line has shot up to -350 right now. Actually over at SportsInt. it's at -455 (which is where I figured it would open at, right around -475 to -500... was shocked to see it below -350)
Click to expand...
I was shocked to see it at -315. i was expecting it at around -500 too.
think back to UFC88. Dan Henderson got to around -170 vs Palhares. that's 63% for Danny. and a damn good chance for a new kid like Palhares.
this is MMA and styles make matchups. Dan is a world-class striker and wrestler. and if you strike and wrestle better then your opponent, you can beat the best BJJ wizard on earth everytime. you can't work too many subs when you're both on your feet. Dan's gameplan was to win. so he did everything in his power to keep it on his feet. great job for the win...
Palhares trains with Brazilian Top Team, one of the best teams in the world. There are stories of him subbing some of his much bigger teammates with ease. Something i could never see Horn doing. I repect Horn. I like him a lot as a fighter and i've watched him for a long time. And he has a hell of a lot of wins vs world-class fighters (forrest, yvel, loiseau, lister, etc...) but i haven't seen much improvement in his game in many years. Fighters these days are so much better overall then they where 5 years ago..
let's go for Horn. how can he win...
submission. horn is an excellent grappler. but i think Palhares is in other class. stories aside, there are still unknowns about Palhares but anybody could get caught if they're in the wrong position. Palhares could have a brain-lapse and Horn slips him the armbar. you never know. i say around 5%.
flash KO. it could happen. but just based on his last fight, Palhares could take one hell of a punch. Dan landed flush few times and it just looked like he only went down because he wanted to get Dan there. Horn has half Danny's KO power. Horn could land him flush on the jaw and drop him, then gnp... but that's not much Horns game... i'll say 5%.
decision. maybe he dances around the ring all day and jabs his way to the W. it can happen but i think Palhares is too fast and strong to not take it to the mat at sometime. if it goes to decision, whoever wrestled better wins... 3%
there's always injury/cut. not sure of the odds. but i'll say it happens in around 1 in 20 matches. divide that by 2 (it could happen to horn too). that's 2%.
Palhares good at 80-85% = value up to -500 IMO :mrgreen:
