UFC 93 thoughts and lines

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Sockbat
Date: January 16, 2009 at 07:13 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

i thought colman looked sick and terrible. then i thought for a while, went out and came back and realised that's what i should've expected him to look like.. i mean the dude is 44 and i haven't seen him fight in many years. and he's going down a weight class. what's the best i could've expected? he's one of the most muscular men in mma history. but he's 44. everybody gets that oldman look eventually.
looking at the pics again, from then neck down he looks good for a 44 year old. he jus looks sad or something. i dunno it's weird. anybody have any better weigh-in pics?

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Jak
Date: January 16, 2009 at 07:20 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Norm said:
Strange post. You would have been better off taking a coleman, a horn, or a belcher. not necessarily based off their chances of winning, but off the info you'd be able to use to complete some research. good luck to you thought!
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That's actually what i was getting at... What i meant was that in comparison to Rua, Palhares and Kang, i don't think Kampmann has done enough to be a -425 bet. I'm not taking a long shot based solely on just taking a long shot, i'm taking based on my belief that Kampmann (in my mind) has the best chance of losing of the other 3 aforementioned names. If Kampmann does not get a submission, to me, his percentage of winning goes down, as his striking hasn't really been shown to be that great in comparison to UFC calibre strikers. I could also factor in things like cutting to a different weight class, but i've already made my bet...
I'm not betting on Barros as much as i am betting against Kampmann. of those 4 guys, i believe he has the best chance of being upset.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: January 16, 2009 at 11:03 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Jak said:
Norm said:
Strange post. You would have been better off taking a coleman, a horn, or a belcher. not necessarily based off their chances of winning, but off the info you'd be able to use to complete some research. good luck to you thought!
Click to expand...
That's actually what i was getting at... What i meant was that in comparison to Rua, Palhares and Kang, i don't think Kampmann has done enough to be a -425 bet. I'm not taking a long shot based solely on just taking a long shot, i'm taking based on my belief that Kampmann (in my mind) has the best chance of losing of the other 3 aforementioned names. If Kampmann does not get a submission, to me, his percentage of winning goes down, as his striking hasn't really been shown to be that great in comparison to UFC calibre strikers. I could also factor in things like cutting to a different weight class, but i've already made my bet...
I'm not betting on Barros as much as i am betting against Kampmann. of those 4 guys, i believe he has the best chance of being upset.
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Actually out of those Kang clearly has the biggest chance to losing.
He has still not wwroked his Visa problems out so he has not been back to ATT which has cause him to look sloppy in his last 6 fights.
Whiel Belcher is far from great, he certainly is capable of beating Kang and pushing the pace.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: EnderWiggin
Date: January 16, 2009 at 11:14 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Norm said:
EnderWiggin said:
The words depressed and slow jumped to my mind.
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I don't think he looks that bad. Perhaps it's just a bit shocking to see a version of Coleman that is/looks 40lbs smaller than he normally weighs? IMO, the cut was a non factor for him, he's been cutting weight for probably 30+ years.
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I wasn't referring to his size or physique so much as his demeanor. By some miracle, I was able to watch the live stream at work, and that's the impression I got from him.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Jak
Date: January 16, 2009 at 11:17 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

buffaloblue said:
Actually out of those Kang clearly has the biggest chance to losing
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Ahhh, this is may be correct, however... you must realize that i am from Vancouver, and will in no way bet against Mr. Kang. I did consider that fight though, but the Herman/Belcher fight really left me at odds about Belcher, a better fighter than Herman would have ended that one... when i looked at the 2 sets of odds, Belcher coming in around +210, i still liked Kampmann's odds better(+210/+400). i've had good success when i've bet, when the odds are +350 or higher. i don't bet as a way to win or for my favorite fighter, i just do it for fun, i pick the upset i think has the best chance of happening and go with that. On this particular night, i feel it's Kampmann.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: January 17, 2009 at 12:57 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Jak said:
buffaloblue said:
Actually out of those Kang clearly has the biggest chance to losing
Click to expand...
Ahhh, this is may be correct, however... you must realize that i am from Vancouver, and will in no way bet against Mr. Kang. I did consider that fight though, but the Herman/Belcher fight really left me at odds about Belcher, a better fighter than Herman would have ended that one... when i looked at the 2 sets of odds, Belcher coming in around +210, i still liked Kampmann's odds better(+210/+400). i've had good success when i've bet, when the odds are +350 or higher. i don't bet as a way to win or for my favorite fighter, i just do it for fun, i pick the upset i think has the best chance of happening and go with that. On this particular night, i feel it's Kampmann.
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I do agree the odds are better, but I also believe both sets of odds are pretty close.
I agree for fun its best not to pick against the guy you like, and with you being from Vancouver, Kang is certainly a favorite.
I believe it should benefit Denis as well that GSP is also gearing up for a fight as they usually train together some.
I have slowed down considerably on the mma betting from a year ago.
Not sure how long you have been betting MMA, but several years ago money betting mma was incredibly easy.
I paid for my first 2 trips to vegas simply off placing MMA bets because often times the lines were incredibly far off.
I know a guy in Canada that actually won enough to buy a 30k dollar car. He didnt start betting a ton either, but the money was that easy at one time.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Jak
Date: January 17, 2009 at 01:17 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

buffaloblue said:
Not sure how long you have been betting MMA, but several years ago money betting mma was incredibly easy
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I made 7 bets last year. And those have been all the bets i've made. Went 5-2. Don't really care to bet much. With the exception of Jackson/Silva(i just wanted to bet on that one) i just like it when the odds seem like i can make a bunch even when spending little ($50 a fight is the most i will put on any fight).
Evans/Liddell +200
Evans/Griffin +105
Jackson/Silva -115
Day/Belcher +300
dos Santos/Werdum +600
Maia/McDonald lost (+200)
Palhares/Hendo lost (+180)

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: buffaloblue
Date: January 17, 2009 at 01:29 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Jak said:
buffaloblue said:
Not sure how long you have been betting MMA, but several years ago money betting mma was incredibly easy
Click to expand...
I made 7 bets last year. And those have been all the bets i've made. Went 5-2. Don't really care to bet much. With the exception of Jackson/Silva(i just wanted to bet on that one) i just like it when the odds seem like i can make a bunch even when spending little ($50 a fight is the most i will put on any fight).
Evans/Liddell +200
Evans/Griffin +105
Jackson/Silva -115
Day/Belcher +300
dos Santos/Werdum +600
Maia/McDonald lost (+200)
Palhares/Hendo lost (+180)
Click to expand...
Ya, I am back down to change on fights.
I made a killing on Renzo vs Pat Millitech a few years ago. Instantly turned a 300 dollar bankrolll to 900 dollars and then made several good bets. That was my last good run though all really started cause I had some decent info on Pat going into that fight.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Jak
Date: January 17, 2009 at 01:38 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

buffaloblue said:
Ya, I am back down to change on fights.
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That's why i'm happy with high odds picks, small risk, high reward. just to keep it fun. i would do horrible if i took betting seriously.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Sockbat
Date: January 17, 2009 at 01:39 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

so far
palhares 10u to win 3.17
rich 2u to win 2.2
parlay
palhares, shogun, kampman
small parlay
palhares, rich, shogun, kang, davis, kampman

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Jak
Date: January 17, 2009 at 01:44 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Sockbat said:
small parlay
palhares, rich, shogun, kang, davis, kampman
Click to expand...
I like your play on the small parlay, very safe. And loading up on Paul Harris is a good way to go, as close to a lock as a fight could be. Good luck.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Norm
Date: January 17, 2009 at 06:09 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Jak said:
Sockbat said:
small parlay
palhares, rich, shogun, kang, davis, kampman
Click to expand...
I like your play on the small parlay, very safe. And loading up on Paul Harris is a good way to go, as close to a lock as a fight could be. Good luck.
Click to expand...
Wow 10u on Paul Harris? Can you say bridge jump? Does Big Nog, Gomi, Werdum, etc evoke any kind of fear when placing that bet? Paul Harris takedowns and striking looked pretty poor against Hendo. I do think Horn had been mailing it in, but he does have a decent enough skillset to pull off the upset. I'll be pulling for you and Paul Harris!

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Norm
Date: January 17, 2009 at 07:15 AM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Not that it matters or anyone cares, but here are my thoughts on the Shogun vs. Coleman fight.
-5 out of 13 Shoguns tko/ko's were via stomps or soccer kicks. I never thought this was a factor, but I also never realized that so many of his wins came this way.
-I noticed in the weigh-in video that he might have had a bit of a limp. This could be a front or it could be very real....hell I could even be seeing things so I may check it out again later after I get my run in.
-Elbows were never allowed in PrideFC, which is a huge part of Coleman's gameplan/arsenal.
-Cages tend to favor wrestlers in that they can pin guys and control them.
-Strikers always have hard time adjusting to the vast size of the octagon...ask crocop. I don't think Shogun would be as stupid to not train in a cage.
-After the freak injury, i would think that still lingers in Shogun's head, making him a bit apprehensive.
-Although Shogun looked good/confident sparring, he still has tore his knee pretty bad atleast twice in the last two years. This could have an effect.
-As I said before, I don't think the cut was as bad on coleman as people are making it out to be.
That said I think Coleman pulls off the upset via ref stoppage or cuts sometime in round one, and I plan on putting 2 units on him.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: digitalkilla
Date: January 17, 2009 at 01:20 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

I bet on franklin even................ and I am 90% sure he will win
Franklin is going to win............ and great odds

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Jak
Date: January 17, 2009 at 02:30 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Castellammarese said:
Kampmann KO 2
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Meh... easy come, easy go.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Performify
Date: January 17, 2009 at 03:34 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Outlier line of Franklin +115 on Bookmaker if anyone is interested in a line that's off-market.
-P

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: EnderWiggin
Date: January 17, 2009 at 04:58 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

EnderWiggin said:
I think Belcher is a good play down to about -190.
I think Belcher will be able to keep the fight on the feet for the most part, where Kang's advantage isn't that large.
Add in the facts that this is Kang's octogan debut, and many of those who's reputation was built fighting primarily in Japan have failed to impress in the UFC, and you've got Belcher looking like a decent threat to pull the upset.
Click to expand...
I guess I don't get any credit for making the right call for the wrong reasons? :lol: The really, really wrong reasons. :lol: :lol:

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: osubuckeye4
Date: January 17, 2009 at 05:37 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Well, I ended up doing so-so on this card...
Put 1 unit on Schafer
.5 unites on Mohr
1.5 on Franklin
2 unites on Palhares
Lost a parlay of a half unit on Rua, Drwal, Palhares, Davis and Kang (stupid Kang)
Let's just see how Franklin does, if he loses it's a bust of a card... if he wins, not so bad at all.

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: cagey
Date: January 17, 2009 at 06:25 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

Including your URL is spam. Do it one more time and you will lose your posting privileges

 

[Nastycrow]

Originally posted by: Showdown
Date: January 17, 2009 at 06:56 PM
Source: https://forum.mmajunkie.com/threads/ufc-93-thoughts-and-lines.8994/

I faired well:
Date placed:
Jan 06, 2009 2:25p
Date settled:
Jan 17, 2009 2:35p
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
(628) Marcus Davis -130 Sat@2:00p
Final Scores
Marcus Davis 1
Chris Lytle 0
Outcome:
Win
--------
Date placed:
Jan 15, 2009 1:07p
Date settled:
Jan 17, 2009 4:17p
4 Team Parlay
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
(646) Martin Kampmann -600 Sat@11:00a
Final Scores
Martin Kampmann 1
Alexandre Barros 0
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
(648) Rousimar Palhares -450 Sat@11:00a
Final Scores
Rousimar Palhares 1
Jeremy Horn 0
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
(624) Mauricio Rua -450 Sat@2:00p
Final Scores
Mauricio Rua 1
Mark Coleman 0
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
(628) Marcus Davis -150 Sat@2:00p
-----------------------------------------
Decent outing, all faves, but nothing risky like Kang or Franklin, so that was my key to success.