osubuckeye4
Well-known member
Blockade is still in effect. A lot of outlets jumped the gun when Trump entered the situation room the other day to review the MOU
WAR
- Thread starter a-mart
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Blockade is still in effect. A lot of outlets jumped the gun when Trump entered the situation room the other day to review the MOU
It's coming straight from the man himself. Trump posted it on his social media.
a-mart
Well Liked Pager Technician
From my understanding that's conditional on a deal
Oh I have no doubt he could flip flop on this a few seconds from now. But, as of now, his exact words are "blockade...will now be lifted". He will very likely say something else tomorrow when the different arms of the highly fractured Iranian government shit all over this.
a-mart
Well Liked Pager Technician
I think it's just phrasing, "will now" = when draft is signed
osubuckeye4
Well-known member
As of 6 hours ago it's still being enforced.
U.S. says it stopped a merchant ship trying to breach blockade and reach Iran
The U.S. military stopped a merchant vessel trying to break through its blockade of Iranian ports by firing a missile into its engine room, the U.S. Central Command said on Saturday.
www.pbs.org
If I was betting on this, my money would be on Iran throwing a wrench into any plans Trump has to end this on his terms. I have zero doubt that his words mean jackshit here. But I do think Trump thinks it is about to be over. I further speculate that one of two things are true: the Iranian government is playing a good cop / bad cop game in negotiations to string this out painfully long; or, there are disparate parts of the fractured Iranian government negotiating in parallel and at odds with each other. If it is the latter, Trump is hearing what he wants and is painfully unaware he is being played.As of 6 hours ago it's still being enforced.
U.S. says it stopped a merchant ship trying to breach blockade and reach Iran
The U.S. military stopped a merchant vessel trying to break through its blockade of Iranian ports by firing a missile into its engine room, the U.S. Central Command said on Saturday.
osubuckeye4
Well-known member
It's crazy how the markets seem to jump on all these reports that end up being completely bogus.
The entire time Trump has said there would be no deal unless Iran agreed to let either the US or China (with US supervision) unearth and remove "the dust".
Also, the entire time Khameni has repeatedly said they aren't handing it over willingly.
Every time one of these, "we're on the 1 yard line!" announcements happens, both Trump and Khameni reiterate the above.
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a-mart
Well Liked Pager Technician
The IDF operation and Beaufort clashes that sparked Hezbollah's expanded rocket fire
As the US weighs a possible halt to the fighting, Israeli forces are pressing deeper into Lebanon, crossing the Litani River and launching an operation north of it; the military says it has secured the area and established river crossings, while Lebanese reports say Israeli troops have also reached the Beaufort area
www.ynetnews.com
Israel can't bomb its way out of the Hezbollah problem
Analysis: Hezbollah is once again betting on survival as victory, and more of the same from Israel won't change the equation; a full-scale invasion of Lebanon could work but at a steep cost; the real question is whether Netanyahu's government can pursue a smarter strategy
www.ynetnews.com
As the US weighs a possible halt to the fighting, Israeli forces are pressing deeper into Lebanon, crossing the Litani River and launching an operation north of it; the military says it has secured the area and established river crossings, while Lebanese reports say Israeli troops have also reached the Beaufort area
The IDF operation and Beaufort clashes that sparked Hezbollah's expanded rocket fire
As the US weighs a possible halt to the fighting, Israeli forces are pressing deeper into Lebanon, crossing the Litani River and launching an operation north of it; the military says it has secured the area and established river crossings, while Lebanese reports say Israeli troops have also...
www.ynetnews.com
Israel can't bomb its way out of the Hezbollah problem
Analysis: Hezbollah is once again betting on survival as victory, and more of the same from Israel won't change the equation; a full-scale invasion of Lebanon could work but at a steep cost; the real question is whether Netanyahu's government can pursue a smarter strategy
Israel can't bomb its way out of the Hezbollah problem
Analysis: Hezbollah is once again betting on survival as victory, and more of the same from Israel won't change the equation; a full-scale invasion of Lebanon could work but at a steep cost; the real question is whether Netanyahu's government can pursue a smarter strategy
www.ynetnews.com
JawboneOfAnAss
Well-known member
At this point any Iran talk from Trump announcing deals, agreements, or pretty much any deadlines or promises should be viewed the same way as Steinbrenner asking Costanza to do anything.Trump Declares He Is Lifting The Naval Blockade On Iran
Trump Declares He Is Lifting The Naval Blockade On Iran (Updated)
Why the blockade would be lifted without a deal being signed isn't clear and Iranian media is pushing back against his claims.www.twz.com
motives
Itsy Bitsy Tiny Weiner
JawboneOfAnAss
Well-known member
Which is why we shouldn't do half measures. If we committed, we have to see it through to the end. Otherwise fuckall is achieved beyond delaying things for a year.
osubuckeye4
Well-known member
Agreed.
While I voted for the lying scumbag who promised this wouldn't happen on his watch.... now that we've pulled the trigger/pushed our chips in, we gotta see it thru to a desirable finish.
Returning to the status quo with Iranian 'pinky swears' that can't reasonably be enforced is not a desirable conclusion when you factor in all off the disruption that has already been caused and which will take months to unfuck
If we were to do this, it should have been all out, overwhelming force. Aggressive taking of fringe territory and islands. No talk of negotiations until they were on the ropes. And definitely no talk of how quickly we want this to end. Trump's attitude from the beginning should have been "We're going to keep shooting until they start talking sense. We have all the time in the world".
I hate how this is going so much.
PrinceVegeta
Well-known member
What makes you believe they were going to come to the negotiating table and talk towards true peace?
If History serves us right, then we should have known from the beginning that these people rather die than to negotiate or surrender. It also has taught us that they have "home court" advantage, and "Time" is on their side. The biggest mistake We keep making is thinking that these people think the same way We do, that They have the same rational.
JawboneOfAnAss
Well-known member
I am holding onto some hope that all this is stalling so UAE and Saudis can mobilize. Iran literally tried to have Trump assassinated, why is he losing his nerve here? For the first time, he has the endorsement of the establishment political class and here he is failing every rule Sun Tzu set for foreign diplomacy.
JawboneOfAnAss
Well-known member
The ironic part is that overall Iranians want the mullahs gone and the IRGC gone but have been terrified and cowed. We could have swelled ranks with local militias after making beachheads and taking coastlines. But the hardliners will never ever negotiate because once the locals feel safe enough, they'd lynch every single cleric longbeard they can get their hands on.
osubuckeye4
Well-known member
I'm still thinking it was stalling to let the millions in the region that were celebrating Eid al-Adha get home safely... that ended yesterday, so attacks beginning tonight/tomorrow would align with that theory.
Who knows with Trump though.
Because my strong belief is that at the top levels of the IRGC, they are not religious fundamentalists. I think that after our attacks decimated their leadership and killed the Supreme Leader, the IRGC is now the strongest power in Iran. They are using the maimed semi-corpse (if he's even alive anymore) of Khomeini as a symbolic figurehead to give their power a thin veneer of legitimacy. I don't believe that the IRGC is willing to ride this cart over the cliff, I believe they have a desired endgame in mind and will be pursuing that while making this as painful for Trump as possible. They are desiring Democratic victories in the primaries and will be aiming to make this administration look as bad as possible.