You don't have the actual facts. You have what they've released.
This is what gets me: no one without codeword security clearance would know the first thing about what intelligence they do or do not have, and the single goddamn stupidest thing they could do is present all they have publicly. That's is exactly how you burn whatever intelligence asset you have in play, and find yourself in the dark.
This is hard for the average civvie to accept, but you have absolutely NO right to any information or proof when it comes to these things. None whatsoever. Because civilians and reporters are nothing but intelligence liabilities, and you being informed potentially compromises everything in play for precisely no benefit whatsoever.
The best you can do in these situations is the "walks like a duck" and "Occams Razor" principles. And this operation walks like an Iranian duck that is probing systems and reactions. This is exactly how they smoke test systems like this. And Occams Razor tells us that the most likely explanation is probably correct; and it is far more likely that Iran is probing than five Ahmeds decided to play some "stupid game." So why release them? To see who they contact. To see what they do.
Like we established, this is how Iran does these things, that means theres someone actually involved and important around, and they want to find that person. The best way to do that is through these dipshits.